There are two games tonight. The top seeds from each conference are in action again. In the East, Boston leads 2-1 while the Thunder are down 1-2. Both teams will be in hostile territory once again. Kristaps Porzingis is out. Luka Doncic ($11,200), Donovan Mitchell ($9,000) and Jarrett Allen ($6,800) are questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BOS -8.5 over CLE on the road. The total is 207. Boston won Game 3 in Cleveland. DAL is -1.5 over OKC at home. The total is 215. Dallas has won the last two games, one on the road and one at home. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks ($9,800) – Oh, Shai. Your offensive repertoire is so divine that my mind flutters into the clouds, leaving behind the man-made constructs of time and day. When I watch you play, I think to myself, ‘This man deserves more pay!” The way that you slay in ISO, moving briskly then quickly braking to delay, making defenders look like helpless prey. To me, that is sublime ballet. Something I treasure so dearly that it can only be conveyed in a diplomatic pouch strapped to the most prominent of attaches. With the Thunder down 1-2, there seems to be clouds of gray and rumblings of dismay, but I think everything will be okay, for I am here to convey that I believe Shai will eat like a hungry man at an all-you-can-eat buffet—producing a performance that will make us forget about Monet and stop the Mavericks winning streak like a smoker smashing a butt in an ashtray.
So far in this series, Shai has put up 59.75, 67 and 64.5 DKFP. He has literally stuffed the stat sheet in every contest. He’s blocked five, two, and two shots while notching a steal in every game. He’s missed three triple-doubles by one rebound and seven assists. The usage rate was 35 percent in the first two contests, ramping up to 43.6 percent in Game 3. He has also played 41 and 42 minutes over the last two games.
Other Options – Donovan Mitchell ($9,000), Kyrie Irving ($8,300), Jaylen Brown ($7,700), Jalen Williams ($7,500), Derrick White ($6,500), Darius Garland ($6,200)
Value
Isaiah Joe, Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks ($3,500) – Josh Giddey ($4,700) has been played off the court this series, receiving 14, 11 and 17 minutes. Aaron Wiggins ($3,900) and Joe have been the primary beneficiaries due to their abilities to shoot from the perimeter. Joe has played 19 and 20 minutes over the last two contests. The range of outcomes is wide because all he does is shoot. He went for 8.25 DKFP in Game 2, but bounced back with 21.5 DKFP in Game 3.
Other Options – Jrue Holiday ($5,600), Payton Pritchard ($4,000), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($3,700)
Forward
Stud
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers ($7,700) – I was going to write up PJ Washington ($6,000), but I think OKC makes adjustments for him, so I think replicating the 58.75 and 40 DKFP from the past two games is a low probability event. Brown’s range of outcomes can be from 25 to 45 DKFP, partly because he’s so scoring dependent and doesn’t contribute much in the defensive categories. That said, the usage rate is usually above 30 percent and he’s gone over 45 DKFP in two of the three games this series. I think Boston is firing on all cylinders tonight with Brown being a significant contributor. I will take the $1,800 discount from Tatum.
Other Options – Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Jalen Williams ($7,500), Evan Mobley ($7,400), PJ Washington ($6,000)
Value
Aaron Wiggins, Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks ($3,900) – Wiggins knocked down 49 percent of this attempts from downtown during the regular season. Granted, that was on low volume of 1.6 attempts per game, but he’s a career 39 percent shooter from beyond the arc. In this series, he’s played 23, 20 and 22 minutes, shooting 4-of-10 from downtown. As mentioned in the Joe section, Giddey has essentially been played off the court due to his struggles shooting from the perimeter. Joe and Wiggins have been the beneficiaries. I don’t see that dynamic changing because the Thunder wants to give as much space for Shai to operate.
Other Options – Al Horford ($5,400), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($3,700), Isaiah Joe ($3,500)
Center
Stud
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks ($6,900) – Holmgren hasn’t exploded yet in this series, but he’s put up at least 36 DKFP in every contest. One of these games, he’s going to put it all together and put up a 50-burger. We just don’t know which game that will be. Holmgren can shoot from the perimeter, grab rebounds, dish out some dimes and be a menace on the defensive end. Even if he doesn’t hit for a ceiling game, the price is more than palatable for a floor in the 30-DKFP range.
Other Options – Evan Mobley ($7,400), PJ Washington ($6,000)
Value
Dereck Lively, Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,200) – The distribution of minutes at center has been so confounding. With Kleber out, I thought it would be split right down the middle between Lively and Daniel Gafford ($5,500). Instead, Lively played 13 minutes in Game 1, while Gafford received 27. In Game 2, Gafford played 27 minutes again while Lively was on the court for 20 minutes, but in Game 3, Lively played 27 minutes while Gafford got 20 minutes. Shrug. Lively is $1,300 cheaper so that seems like the prudent way to play it.
Other Options – Al Horford ($5,400), Dereck Lively ($4,200), Dean Wade ($3,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
