There are two games tonight. Game 1 between the top-seeded Thunder hosting the fifth-seeded Mavericks. In the Eastern Conference side of the bracket, the top-seeded Celtics host the fourth-seeded Cavaliers in their opening game of the series. Kristaps Porzingis is out. Jarrett Allen ($6,900) is questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BOS -12 over CLE at home. The total is 211. OKC is -3.5 over DAL at home. The total is 218. BOS was 37-4 during the regular season and 2-1 in their first round series. CLE was 22-19 on the road and lost all three away from home in the first round. OKC was 33-8 at home during the regular season and 2-0 in the first round. DAL was 25-16 on the road and 2-1 away from home in the first round. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder ($9,000) – I didn’t think I’d be able to fit in Doncic tonight, but I was able to make lineups with him. That said, I will be fading him, which is kind of scary because he did put up 93.25 DKFP against the Thunder back in December. Irving didn’t play in that contest and it’s the Western Conference Semifinals now. The defensive intensity and physicality will be ratcheted up and there will likely be scheme adjustments to make Doncic’s life a little more difficult. If so, that should mute the possibility of a ceiling game somewhat, and Doncic is the only player on the slate who could put up a “have-to-have-it” game.
Irving is more than capable of providing fantasy goodies. If more focus is paid to Doncic, that could allow more opportunities to produce. He currently has the fifth-highest projection but has a minuscule ownership projection in the single digits. In two of the last three games of the Clippers series, Irving put up 53.5 and 55.75 DKFP. It’s within the range of outcomes that he puts up the most DKFP on the slate while providing an excellent source of differentiation.
Other Options – Luka Doncic ($12,000), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,100), Donovan Mitchell ($8,600), Derrick White ($6,700), Darius Garland ($6,400)
Value
Max Strus, Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics ($5,400) – You never know what’s going to happen when you board the Strus Goose. Sometimes, it will barely rise above the water, while other times it will venture where Icarus got into trouble. In two games against Boston during the regular season, Strus went for 13 and 34.75 DKFP. He attempted five shots in one game and 15 in the other. The one constant is that he’s going to play over 30 minutes. And minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Other Options – Josh Giddey ($5,600), Caris LeVert ($4,500)
Forward
Stud
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks ($7,200) – I think I will be constructing lineups built around the secondary options. Not only are they cheaper, but there’s a chance they score similar DKFP than the alphas. In the last two games of the Pelicans series, Williams garnered a usage rate of 29 percent and went for 45.5 and 43.75 DKFP. For the series, he attempted 13, 15, 15 and 14 shots. He may not score more points than Gilgeous-Alexander, but his contributions across the board get him close to the same DKFP number.
Other Options – Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
Value
Al Horford, Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,700) – Porzingis is out for this series, so Horford will start and play over 30 minutes. Porzingis missed 26 games this season. In those contests, Horford did not play in five and went for at least 30 DKFP in 12, with four over 40.
Other Options – Sam Hauser ($3,700), Aaron Wiggins ($3,500)
Center
Stud
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks ($6,800) – Holmgren is such a unique player because he protects the rim due to his length, can make it rain from downtown and morph into a gazelle in transition. He has some guard-like skills as well. The frame is light but the Mavericks don’t possess huge bangers down low. Holmgren can contribute in every statistical category and, when it all comes together, it is truly a sight to behold. Back in November against the Warriors, Holmgren went for 36 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, two steals, two blocks and two treys, good for 64.5 DKFP. He will likely end up in the 30 DKFP range, and the price is palatable for that, but there is ceiling if the stars align.
Other Options – Evan Mobley ($7,600)
Value
Dereck Lively/Daniel Gafford, Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,300/$4,500) – With Maxi Kleber out, the center minutes will likely be split right down the middle between Lively and Gafford. On the season, Gafford averaged 1.19 DKFP per minute while Lively was at 0.97. Gafford is $200 more expensive but Lively played 24 and 25 minutes in the last two games of the Clippers series while Gafford received 23 and 19. The projected ownership numbers are similar as well. It really is a Choose Your Own Adventure.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
