Remember football? I know. It’s been a long time, but search the recesses of your brain and I’m sure you’ll find some snippets of long touchdowns and big hits. If not, I’d recommend you start getting back up to speed with the game quickly, because the NFL regular season is not all that far away.
In fact, it’s so close, that salaries for Week 1 contests went live this afternoon on DraftKings. Let’s take an early peek at how you should be building your lineups this September.
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QUARTERBACK
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans, $8,000 – Jackson is the most expensive QB on the board in Week 1, yet you’d be hard-pressed to make a case that he isn’t deserving. Even in a “down” year in 2022, Jackson averaged 0.67 DKFP per drop back — the third-best rate among all qualified pivots. There’s also just something about utilizing Jackson while he’s fresh in September that’s very appealing. The former MVP has been at his best in the season’s opening month, with career-highs in QB rating (106.4) and adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.9). Heck, Jackson produced 81.0 rushing yards per contest across the Ravens’ opening three games in 2022. Fresh legs are tough to stop.
Value
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $5,900 – This isn’t a joke. Well, this isn’t a joke unless he’s terrible. Then I totally meant it as a joke. Wilson was objectively terrible last season, setting career-lows in touchdown passes (16) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.5). Still, that was under Nathaniel Hackett, who no longer resides in Colorado. Now it’s Sean Payton at the helm of the Broncos’ offensive and that makes me a little more forgiving for Wilson’s past performance. The fact the Raiders ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA in 2022 doesn’t hurt, either.
RUNNING BACK
Stud
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, $6,900 – Between injuries and hold outs, no position will be more impacted over the next six weeks than running back. Still, I feel pretty confident that I’ll remain high on Etienne by the time Week 1 rolls around. Yes, Tank Bigsby ($5,000) will provide Etienne more competition than he had for most of last season, but Etienne’s role in 2022 after taking over James Robinson’s starting spot was massive. The sophomore logged a 70% snap share in eight of his 12 starts, with two of the four failures being a blowout and an injury. Etienne was fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.1) and fifth in red zone carries (43). What more do you want?
Value
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams, $6,000 – Again, it wouldn’t be Week 1 without two or three cheap, chalky running backs popping up due to a preseason injury. But as I sit here in late July, it’s Walker that stands out as a value. The name of the game at this position is volume. Always has been. Always will be. Well, across the final 13 weeks of the 2022 regular season, Walker received the third-most carries of any back (205), trailing only Josh Jacobs ($7,700) and Derrick Henry ($7,800). That stat is made even more impressive by the fact that Walker basically missed two games due to injury in early December. Add in that this contest owns the slate’s second-highest total, and it’s a wonder why Walker is only the 17th-most expensive RB in Week 1.
WIDE RECEIVER
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers, $8,200 – Here’s the crazy thing about Hill’s 2022 — a season where he finished with a career-high 1,710 receiving yards and led all qualified wideouts with 0.45 DKFP per snap — it could have been so much better. Hill actually averaged an eye-popping 0.50 DKFP per snap in the 13 games where Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) was able to start, while he didn’t catch a single touchdown in the weeks where Tua rode the pine due to injury. Tua’s healthy once again. So, for that matter, is Terron Armstead. When Miami’s attack is at full-strength, you need some exposure.
Value
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, $4,400 – There is so much unknown in the Packers’ passing game at the moment. However, while the floor is non-existent, uncertainty also means an opportunity for value. Allen Lazard is gone. So is Randall Cobb. That should leave Christian Watson ($6,000) and Doubs with all the opportunity they can handle — and maybe Jayden Reed ($3,000), as well. Keep an eye on the rookie. Doubs was relatively productive in the six-game stretch he logged at least an 80% snap share, collecting three touchdowns in that span. This is a good matchup on paper. Chicago conceded an NFL-high 7.7 yards per opponent pass attempt in 2022.
TIGHT END
Stud
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, $4,800 – It was a weird season for Higbee. He was quite productive with Matthew Stafford ($5,700) healthy, sitting fourth among all TEs with 55 targets at the end of Week 9. However, despite all that attention, Higbee was somehow without a touchdown. You know what happened next. Stafford went down. The Rams had a carousel of names under center. Things got ugly. In what should be a high-scoring affair in Week 1, I’d look for some positive red zone regression for the veteran.
Value
Irv Smith, Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, $3,600 – This is the fourth year of the Irv Smith Experience, but I’m still optimistic. The former second-round pick has struggled to stay healthy and have an impact the last three seasons, but in a shallow Bengals’ TE room, he should at least get an early opportunity to show what he can do. Really, at this price, all you can ask is that Smith get on the field. After that, you’re just banking on Joe Burrow ($7,100; calf) to do his thing — if he’s available to suit up.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
