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World Cup 2023 knockout round qualification scenarios for Group H

World Cup 2023 knockout round qualification scenarios for Group H

Updated:

By: Ryan Sanders

With three of the four teams still in play, Group H is set up for a thrilling finale with all four teams in action on Thursday, August 3 at 6 a.m. ET. Colombia leads the group and has booked their ticket to the round of 16, but Germany and Morocco will both be vying for the last qualifying spot in the group on the final matchday.

Group H

Qualified: Colombia, Morocco
Eliminated: Germany, South Korea

Update: The No. 2 ranked team in the FIFA rankings is out. Germany only managed a draw against South Korea, and Morocco got the win over Colombia. That means Morocco and Colombia are in the round of 16.

Colombia will take on Morocco on the final matchday as they look to officially claim first place in the group, while Germany will face off against South Korea as they look for a win to lock up qualification for the round of 16. Here’s a look at the current standings in Group H heading into the final day.

Colombia, 2-0-0, +3 GD, 6 points
Germany, 1-0-1, +5 GD, 3 points
Morocco, 1-0-1, -5 GD, 3 points
South Korea, 0-0-2, -3 GD, 0 points

With everything coming down to the final day for Germany and Morocco, here’s a look at how each of those two teams can advance.

Germany

Will advance with:

  • A win over South Korea (with winning tiebreakers if Morocco beats Colombia)
  • A win or draw against South Korea and Morocco loss or draw against Colombia
  • A loss to South Korea and Morocco loss to Colombia

Will be eliminated with:

  • A loss to South Korea and Morocco win or draw against Colombia
  • A draw with South Korea and Morocco win over Colombia

Morocco

Will advance with:

  • A win over Colombia and Germany loss or draw against South Korea
  • A win over Colombia and Germany win over South Korea (with winning tiebreakers; Morocco needs to make up a 10-goal differential deficit in this scenario)
  • A draw with Colombia and Germany loss to South Korea

Will be eliminated with:

  • A win over Colombia and Germany win over South Korea (with losing tiebreakers)
  • A draw with Colombia and Germany win or draw against South Korea
  • A loss to Colombia

As a reminder, here’s how the tiebreakers work in the 2023 FIFA women’s World Cup group stage:

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Germany was -5000 to advance from the group ahead of the tournament. Colombia was priced at -150 while South Korea was -105. Morocco were big underdogs to advance, coming in at +450. Ahead of the final matchday, Germany sits at -10000 to qualify from the group while Morocco are still the underdogs at +2000.