We have three games tonight. MIN is at home against PHO, MIL hosts IND and LAC welcomes DAL once again. So far, home teams are 11-0 in these playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) has missed the last four games and is doubtful tonight. Kawhi Leonard ($8,000), Grayson Allen ($5,300) and Kyle Anderson ($3,800) are questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIN -3 over PHO. The total is 211.5. MIL -1 over IND with the total at 223.5. DAL is -2.5 over LAC, the only road team favored. The total is 216. During the regular season, MIN was 30-11 at home while PHO was 24-17 on the road. MIL was 31-11 at home while IND was 21-20 on the road. LAC was 25-16 at home while DAL was 25-16 on the road. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks ($8,800) – Haliburton did not have a good Game 1, finishing with nine points, seven rebounds, eight assists, a steal and a block. He only attempted five shots and had a usage rate of 12.5 percent. I expect him to be much more aggressive in this one. In five prior meetings during the regular season, the usage rate was in the 25 percent range and he had four games over 50 DKFP with two at 63.
Other Options – Luka Doncic ($11,900), Kyrie Irving ($8,300), James Harden ($8,200), Bradley Beal ($6,400)
Value
Patrick Beverley, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers ($4,500) – Beverley started the last four games of the regular season and received the nod in Game 1, playing 37 minutes and contributing 29.75 DKFP. He’s a low-usage player who contributes a little something something in every category but he will be out on the court due to his defensive tenacity. I think he may get more opportunities to score tonight, as the Pacers could try and get the ball out of Lillard’s hands more often. The range of outcomes is wide for Beverley, as he could finish in the low teens or put up 40 DKFP. He is also going to be highly-rostered, so there is merit in differentiating.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook ($5,300), TJ McConnell ($4,600), Terance Mann ($4,100)
Forward
Stud
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers ($7,400) – I am likely fading Lillard tonight, so much of my perspective centers around that thesis. What could go wrong? I do like Portis, as he’s $600 cheaper than Middleton, and he garnered a massive usage rate in Game 1 with Giannis out, who is doubtful to play again. That said, Portis will likely be much higher rostered than Middleton, and I think there’s a good chance Middleton will put up more DKFP than Portis. Middleton played 35 minutes in Game 1 and had a 23.9 percent usage rate. He finished with 45 DKFP. As mentioned in the Beverley section above, I’m thinking that Indiana will try to take the ball out of Lillard’s hands tonight, which could lead to more ISO and post-up opportunities for Middleton.
Other Options – Anthony Edwards ($8,900), Kevin Durant ($8,500), Pascal Siakam ($7,800), Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,300)
Value
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns ($4,000) – NAW put up 35.5 DKFP in Game 1. He played 29 minutes, racked up four steals and shot 7-for-7 from the field and 4-for-4 from downtown. I’m not expecting any of those to replicate in Game 2. But he should be a main piece off the bench and play in the 20s. He only averages 0.71 DKFP per minute but I have more confidence in NAW putting up over 20 DKFP than Jaden McDaniels ($4,100) or Royce O’Neale ($4,000). Five games ago, NAW went for 44.5 DKFP and had at least 20 DKFP in the prior three contests.
Center
Stud
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks ($6,400) – Turner played 33 minutes in Game 1, finishing with 17 points, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals, good for 35 DKFP. And that was with Haliburton having a mediocre game. I expect Haliburton to be much more aggressive tonight and this game could be the most wide-open on the slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total set at 223.5, the highest by a wide margin. In five regular-season games, the teams combined for 272, 235, 266, 247 and 240. Yes, it’s the playoffs and the Bucks held the Pacers to 94 points in Game 1, but I don’t see that happening tonight.
Other Options – Rudy Gobert ($7,100), Bobby Portis ($6,800)
Value
Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks ($5,800) – Zubac was a beast in Game 1, played 34 minutes, garnering a 30.5 usage rate and finishing with 20 points, 15 rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block. That was good for 45.25 DKFP. That isn’t unchartered territory, as he put up over 40 DKFP 10 times this season. The 17 field goal attempts in Game 1, though, were a season high. During the regular season, Zubac put up 24.75, 31 and 27 DKFP against Dallas, but he only played 25, 23 and 22 minutes in those contests. It’s the playoffs, so Zubac will likely see over 30 minutes.
Other Options – Brook Lopez ($5,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
