The AFC North is the best division in football, right? Like, we can all have our doubts about the QB situation of the Browns and the pythagorean record of the Steelers, but all four teams are at least above-average. Still, for my money, the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals are the clear cream of the crop.
Can the Bengals pull out what would be a massive road victory on Thursday night to keep their division title hopes alive?
Let’s dive in and break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CIN vs BAL)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Ja’Marr Chase ($16,500 CP) – I don’t want to simplify things too much when it comes to Chase’s viability on this slate, but the man is averaging 40.8 DKFP in the two games Tee Higgins (hamstring) has missed this season. That’s pretty damn impressive. Most of that success came in a Week 5 matchup against the Cardinals, a contest where Chase hauled in 15 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns, but it’s not like a 64-yard score last Sunday made for underwhelming returns, either. Chase has big play ability on every snap he takes and — if you remove the first two games of the year where Joe Burrow ($10,000) was clearly compromised — his overall statistics are right up there with the best receivers in the league. In fact, since Week 3, only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown have more DKFP than Chase (175.3). It also doesn’t hurt matters that Marlon Humphrey (calf) is doubtful to suit up for this tilt, leaving Ravens D/ST ($4,600) at less than 100%.
Lamar Jackson ($16,200 CP) – It’s been a bit of a disappointing stretch for Jackson, who has registered fewer than 19.0 DKFP in five of his last six starts. Still, Jackson’s scrambling ability always makes him viable, as the quarterback enters Week 11 leading everyone at his position in rushing attempts (92) and rushing yards (480). He’s also remained quite efficient as a DFS asset, with his 0.61 DKFP earned per snap sitting as the fourth-best mark in the NFL. There’s reason to believe this might be a ceiling spot for Jackson’s arm, too. While the pivot has exceeded 250 passing yards just once this season, Bengals D/ST ($3,600) has surrendered a league-worst 317.3 opponent passing yards per contest since the beginning of Week 8. If Jackson gets anywhere close to that figure — look out. The last three times the former MVP has gone over that aforementioned 250-yard plateau through the air, he’s produced 36.9 DKFP per game.
FLEX Plays
Tyler Boyd ($6,800) – Boyd is just too cheap. There’s no way around it. I’ll hear the case for Trenton Irwin ($4,400) being a more cost-effective option, but in terms of raw potential, you need to have some exposure to Boyd on this slate. The former second-round pick led the Bengals’ WR corps in nearly every category that matters in Week 10’s loss to Houston, finishing the game with a 92.2% snap share and a season-high 12 targets. Heck, Boyd ran a route on 44 of Burrow’s 47 drop backs — one more than Chase. I would also ask that you keep the name Stanley Morgan ($200) in your mind. The 27-year-old doesn’t have a reception since 2021 and he played only four snaps versus the Texans; however, with Andrei Iosivas (knee) sidelined with Higgins on Thursday, the Bengals have very little wideout depth. Morgan could be a desperation option in a stars and scrubs build.
Keaton Mitchell ($5,400) – Look, it’s not exactly been the best month to suggest trusting the Harbaugh family, but when John Harbaugh said earlier this week that Mitchell would be “more involved” in Week 11, I’m inclined to believe him. I mean, why wouldn’t you give the ball to this guy more often? Mitchell is averaging a jaw-dropping 13.9 yards per touch so far this season and has scored a 39-yard touchdown in back-to-back contests. Would I normally recommend investing in an asset over $5K that hasn’t recorded a snap share of at least 25% this season? No. Yet when the other Baltimore players in this price range are Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,200) and Rashod Bateman ($4,800), who rarely see more than a handful of targets each week, you’ll understand my preference to shoot for some real upside.
Fades
Joe Mixon ($9,600) – Mixon has managed to scrape together some decent fantasy results in the last three games thanks to some consistent goal line work, but to say he’s been touchdown dependant would be a huge understatement. In the five contests this season where Mixon has failed to find the end zone, he’s averaging a paltry 11.0 DKFP. In fact, Mixon is producing just 0.73 DKFP per touch through 10 weeks of action, which places him in the 30th percentile of the 57 running backs who have played at least 25% of their team’s offensive snaps. He’s yet to have a 100-yard rushing performance. He’s yet to haul in a receiving touchdown. He’s been the epitome of meh. I doubt that changes too much against a Ravens defense that ranks second in the NFL by DVOA.
THE OUTCOME
Speaking of DVOA, Baltimore happens to be the best team in the entire league by that particular metric. Now, that doesn’t mean everything, but I do think it makes it fair to classify the Ravens are a very good squad. What do very good teams do? They bounce back after tough losses. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a defeat. With this contest in Maryland, I have to side with the Ravens.
Final Score: Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 21
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CIN vs BAL)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
