Scott Drew brings an aggravating assignment to Texas in this old Big 12 rivalry: Baylor arrives in San Antonio with three comfortable wins, a swarm of guards and enough offensive rebounding to make a good defensive possession feel interminable. These schools last met in March 2024. For their reunion at Frost Bank Center, I’m more interested in how Sean Miller’s new backcourt handles the Bears than in the No. 7 beside Texas’ name. November rankings carry a considerable amount of preseason optimism; Baylor has already done something worth investigating. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college basketball game between the Texas Longhorns and the Baylor Bears.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Texas vs. Baylor prediction, preview
Against Yale, the Bears stole the ball 12 times, forced 17 turnovers and scored 24 points off those mistakes. Dylan Mingo has collected 13 steals in just 66 minutes across his first three college games, while his brother Kayden and Brett Decker Jr. joined him in scoring 49 points on 19-of-29 shooting against the Bulldogs. Drew can attack a ballhandler without depending on one guard to subsequently manufacture every basket. With Isaac Celiscar also scoring 15 against his former school, Yale spent the evening chasing contributions from several directions.
Texas has generally protected the ball, accumulating 52 assists against 28 turnovers, although Chicago State, Gardner-Webb and Grambling barely resemble this assignment. Austin Goosby’s 13 assists against four turnovers are particularly encouraging for a freshman already initiating possessions alongside Isaiah Johnson. Mikey Lewis remains sidelined following right-foot surgery, so the Longhorns will face this pressure without the experienced Saint Mary’s transfer. If Goosby and Johnson play through it cleanly, Baylor will have a much harder time defending the next pass.
Waiting inside is Matas Vokietaitis, who has scored 21.3 points per game while making 23 of 29 shots. Against Grambling, he also attempted 12 free throws; Baylor’s bigs have to contest him without letting Texas spend the afternoon shooting from the stripe. David Punch complicates those possessions further. The former TCU standout has made 12 of 19 attempts himself, and whichever Bear helps on Vokietaitis still has to locate Punch when the shot goes up. I expect Texas to score efficiently whenever its guards deliver the ball into the frontcourt.
Baylor vs. Texas pick, best bet
Baylor can recover some of those points through sheer repetition. The Bears have retrieved 43.6% of available offensive rebounds through three games, with Caden Powell, Evan Chatman and Celiscar combining for 21 offensive boards. That matters for a team shooting 27.2% from three: Decker has made 11 of 26, but his teammates have combined for 11 of 55. Texas should make somebody else beat it from outside. Baylor’s rebounding can prolong those possessions until a better attempt develops, though sending bodies to the glass also risks leaving the floor open if Texas secures the rebound.
I expect a close finish, where both teams’ free-throw shooting becomes uncomfortable: Texas has made 69.1%, Baylor 67.3%. The Bears’ pressure and second chances make the points preferable to an outright-win bet, especially with Vokietaitis capable of deciding the game inside. At this shorter number, I’m trimming the stake.
Best bet: Baylor +3.5 (-108)
Projected score: Texas 80, Baylor 78.
