Jared Gordon is facing Melquizael Costa in a three-round Lightweight bout on tonight’s UFC 334 Early Prelims. UFC 334 is taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York City! The Early Prelims begin at 5:00 p.m. ET. Both fighters are looking to get back in the win column: Gordon is coming off two losses, while Costa also suffered a defeat in his previous bout.
Check out my best bet below for Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa at tonight’s UFC 334 event.
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Gordon, 38, has a 21-9 record with 10 finishes and is currently in a two-fight losing streak for the first time since 2018. His last fight came at UFC 328 in May against Jim Miller. Gordon’s most recent win came in May 2025 against Thiago Moises. After spending time in the Featherweight division, Costa is moving up to fight at Lightweight for the first time since December 2023. Costa suffered a loss to Arnold Allen in May but won six straight fights before that.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Costa is a -360 favorite, with Gordon being the underdog at +300. This bout has an over/under of 2.5 rounds, with the under at -160 and the over at +124. Also, Costa is +120 to win by knockout and +275 by decision. Even though Costa is moving up a division, he is slightly taller (5’10” vs. 5’9″) and has a three-inch edge in standing reach (71″ vs. 68″).
On the feet, Gordon has the advantage in significant strikes per minute (5.57 vs. 4.29) and striking accuracy (53% vs. 47%). But Costa absorbs fewer strikes per minute from opponents (3.19 vs. 4.11). On the ground, it is close: Gordon averages more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.91 vs. 1.53) and has the better takedown defense (60% vs. 50%), but Costa is more accurate (35% vs. 34%).
Although Gordon and Costa have had quick finishes before, I’m taking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at +124. This is a close matchup where both fighters could struggle to gain the upper hand. Since they’re both coming off a loss, they might enter this bout more passive than usual, which could translate to a longer fight. Seven of Gordon’s previous 12 fights have gone over 2.5 rounds. Also, three of Costa’s last five contests have lasted more than 2.5 rounds.
