Tampa Bay pounded Atlanta for 324 rushing yards and won 16–0 without completing a pass. Even in a downpour, that is an outrageous way to win an NFL game. The Buccaneers have run for 584 yards across consecutive victories, with running back Bucky Irving reaching at least 106 in three of his last four outings. Chicago just held Seattle’s returning backs to 52 yards on 16 carries. At Soldier Field, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield should have considerably more work to do. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Most all stats provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.
Bears vs. Buccaneers prediction, preview
Bears defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons can stop Irving before he ever finds room to cut. Seattle doubled Simmons 13 times in his Chicago debut; he still recorded a sack and two tackles for loss. Bucs guards Cody Mauch and Ben Bredeson have to move him or help steer Irving away from him. When Simmons wins inside, Chicago can leave more defenders in coverage instead of dragging their safeties forward to stop the run. Tampa Bay will have to earn those yards against a much different front from the ones they just trampled.
Mayfield has cleared the report for his throwing thumb, and receiver Chris Godwin is available to help him attack elsewhere. Emeka Egbuka remains questionable despite two full practices; his return would give Mayfield another established receiver against a secondary with cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Malik Muhammad questionable. Mayfield can throw early and make them tackle. Holding the ball invites Simmons to ruin the series: Mayfield has taken a sack on 29.2% of pressured dropbacks this season. Losing those yards would put even more strain on Irving’s next carry.
Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has been feeding tight end Colston Loveland, who has caught at least six passes for 65 yards in three straight games. Williams has passed for at least 245 yards with a touchdown and no interception in each of his three games since returning from a hamstring injury. Coach Ben Johnson has helped him release the ball through changing formations and personnel. Tampa Bay is missing edge rusher Yaya Diaby; if coach Todd Bowles sends another defender to replace that pressure, Williams can find Loveland behind him.
Buccaneers vs. Bears pick, best bet
Bears running back D’Andre Swift scored three touchdowns against Seattle while laboring through 27 carries for 69 yards. Tampa Bay can make him grind again. The Buccaneers have allowed backs just 1.67 adjusted yards before contact per carry and 67.1 rushing yards per game, while Swift’s teammate Kyle Monangai is questionable after four missed games. Williams may have to finish more drives through the air. Bowles can force him to string together completions to Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III, then tackle them; Tampa Bay has allowed only 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.
I’m taking under 47.5 at -112. Simmons should force Mayfield to throw his way downfield, while Bowles’ front can demand the same of Williams by squeezing Swift’s handoffs. Mayfield’s healthy receivers and Chicago’s questionable corners make laying six uncomfortable; Tampa Bay can answer if the Bears commit too heavily to Irving. I expect Chicago to win through Williams and Loveland, but both quarterbacks should have to rescue stalled possessions more often than last week’s rushing touchdowns suggest.
Best bet: Under 47.5 (-112)
Projected score: Bears 24, Buccaneers 20.
