Week 9 means that we’re officially at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. The playoff race is taking shape as the trade deadline nears next week, so expect a flurry of action in the coming days. On Sunday, though, there’s an intriguing meeting between two teams that were expected to be contenders in the AFC, but both the Texans and Chargers have severely underperformed thus far. Houston still has an outside chance at the playoffs, but can this group begin to salvage its season here?
Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Texans vs. Chargers in NFL Week 9.
Texans vs. Chargers prediction, preview
It’s nearly impossible to get a read on this Texans team. They were a hipster pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the season, but a 2-5 start has them digging themselves out of a hole coming out of a Week 8 bye. It’s clear that this defense – one of the NFL’s best over the last couple of seasons – has regressed hard, allowing 24.3 PPG and falling to 22nd in EPA/play allowed. They’ve given up at least 27 points four times in seven games, a far cry from last season when they did so three times in total. Offensively, Houston has taken a step up from last year. The Texans are producing 23.6 PPG and are 12th in EPA/play themselves. Now, the run game is practically nonexistent and David Montgomery remains out with a groin injury, but the passing attack has found some success. C.J. Stroud ranks 12th in EPA/dropback amidst a resurgent campaign, throwing passes to Nico Collins and a rotating cast of other names around him that includes Marvin Harrison Jr., Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. Offensive coordinator Nick Caley also said he wants to get Collins more involved moving forward, so watch for the wideout to potentially be peppered with targets.
Los Angeles was another popular offseason pick to make a deep playoff run, but instead finds itself mired in a nightmarish campaign. The Chargers are the only team in the NFL left winless, going 0-7 and showing no improvement coming out of the Week 7 bye with another loss. The offensive regression is nearly inconceivable, to put it bluntly. Hype was high for the unit when Mike McDaniel was hired as coordinator this offseason, but they’ve had virtually no sustained success despite the litany of talent. The team ranks dead last in scoring with 14.1 PPG and is similarly ranked in EPA/play and success rate. Justin Herbert falls 35th among 35 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA/dropback with a 5-10 TD-INT ratio and Omarion Hampton has underwhelmed in a backfield tandem, while Ladd McConkey has been a semi-bright spot despite the surrounding environment. The Chargers’ defense allows 25.0 PPG but has been much better in terms of EPA/play at eighth. Points are king, though – as long as they keep giving them up and scoring very few of their own, this team will continue to falter.
Texans vs. Chargers pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Texans were a -6 favorite on the road with -245 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Chargers were a +200 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 40.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is a matchup that’ll be interesting for a couple of reasons. Obviously, both teams are underperforming to various degrees and in desperate need of wins, though Los Angeles’ season is all but over at this point barring a miracle turnaround. Houston is favored for a reason here, and I do think the visitors wind up winning since they’ve had a much more stable offense throughout the campaign and still bring defensive upside in spite of their flaws.
However, I’m leaning toward the over in this game myself. The 40.5 total is low-ish and both defenses have been somewhat vulnerable, albeit to varying degrees. It’s unlikely that the Chargers get a ton going on the offensive side of the ball, but there is a world in which we see this passing attack show a little bit of juice since the Texans’ pass defense has been surprisingly soft this season. Of course, that also relies on the Texans’ pass rush not getting the better of L.A.’s offensive line as well as Herbert not committing too many turnovers, but there are avenues for a little more production than we’ve seen from the home team lately. It’s the Houston offense that may do the majority of the work for this over to cash, though, seeing as the unit has scored 26+ points in four of the club’s seven games and will likely need to air the ball out since the run game is so lacking.
Could this game be an outright mess? Absolutely, and sloppy play is something we should probably plan for between these two sides given what they’ve shown. I do think that almost benefits the over, though, so I believe there’s more to the total here than banking on which team will win/cover since they’ve been so unpredictable.
