Through the first half or so of the fantasy football season, Chase Brown has disappointed big time in comparison to the expectations of managers who roster him. There’s a glimmer of hope, though, since the Bengals’ RB caught fire around this time last year and was one of the best players in the game from that point forward. Now, he heads into a Week 9 matchup against the Falcons, but does he still belong in lineups moving forward?
Here are the details on whether you should start or sit Chase Brown in Week 9 fantasy.
Chase Brown Start or Sit Advice for Week 9
The Bengals’ offense is quite impressive, but the run game is an area for improvement. They’re just 26th in EPA/rush, and frankly, some regression from Chase Brown is a big factor in that struggle.
Brown is having a tough season. Through seven games, he’s run for only 340 yards and one touchdown, though he does have 36 receptions for another 189 yards to his name. The regression has come on the ground – Brown is averaging only 3.62 YPC and has a below-average explosive rush rate of 8.0%, producing an average of 48.6 rushing yards per game. Were it not for his receiving work, he’d be outright unstartable in fantasy football, but his PPR upside has allowed him to still average 13.3 FPPG. Still, that’s a letdown after he posted 16.6 FPPG last season, which delivered RB1-caliber numbers over the second half.
What’s interesting is that Brown’s pattern of production does mimic how last season played out. During that campaign, he averaged only 10.1 FPPG and had 310 rushing yards with one touchdown, salvaging his scoring with his pass-catching prowess. However, he caught fire from that point onward, finally finding running room with over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns over his final 10 games to average 21.2 FPPG in that span. The similarity of this season’s slow start probably just a coincidence, but it hasn’t stopped fantasy managers from hoping that Brown can repeat to pay off his ADP.
The good news is that the running back is still seeing the majority of snaps and touches in the Cincinnati backfield. He has a 71.4% snap share and a 67.1% carry share, also garnering a 15.0% target share. It does seem like fantasy points should flow soon, given the amount of opportunities he sees. Just last week, he saw 20 total touches in a thriller against the Titans, taking 12 carries and catching eight passes for over 100 scrimmage yards – though he still didn’t find the end zone in a high-scoring game.
It’s also encouraging that in Week 9, Brown is in a very positive matchup for running backs. Per FantasyPointsData, the opposing Falcons allow 26.5 FPPG to RBs, fourth most of any defense. While their run defense was strong early in the season, they’re now allowing 4.62 YPC to halfbacks with 110.3 rushing yards per game, the seventh most of any team. What’s especially appealing for Brown this week is the receiving chances – Atlanta gives up 6.5 targets and 5.0 catches per contest to running backs, fifth and seventh most. Does the matchup set him up for success?
The Bottom Line
Brown has underperformed this season, and the resemblance of his numbers thus far to how last year played out is a bit of an uncanny comparison. Efficiency be damned, we’d be having an entirely different discussion about him in fantasy were he were scoring more touchdowns. At some point, those scores may begin to roll in – he’s due for some positive regression in that regard after scoring 11 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.
The Bengals’ matchup is also quite positive for Brown’s outlook in Week 9. The Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to score plenty of fantasy points and they’re particularly generous when it comes to receiving work allowed to the position, which is exactly what Brown excels at. This should be a competitive game and the total of 52.5 is on the high side. He’d likely be in line for additional rushing work if his team plays with a lead, or could see some extra passes thrown his way if Cincinnati trails.
All things considered, this is a great spot for Brown to finally flip the script on his campaign. Expecting a repeat of last season’s surge over his final 10 games is likely setting the bar too high, but the Bengals’ top back maintains a firm grip on the lead role in this backfield and will continue to operate in a high-achieving offense. He’s a firm start in Week 9.
