Kaden Robnett went down on New Mexico’s opening drive at San Jose State, and the Lobos had to reorganize the middle of their line in the middle of a conference road game. Malik Aliane slid over from left guard, Kiefer Sibley ran for 102 yards on 12 carries, and New Mexico got out of San Jose with a 21–16 win. Six days later in Reno, Aliane and the guards draw a Nevada front that made UCLA work through a much closer game than its offense allowed. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the New Mexico Lobos.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Nevada vs. New Mexico prediction, preview
Sibley and fellow back Scottre Humphrey have rushed for 1,025 yards between them. New Mexico can ride both if Nevada gives up enough on first down to let quarterback Toa Fa’avae choose when to throw. He’s thrown six interceptions and one touchdown pass over three consecutive 21-point outings. Even with Sibley running well, the Lobos averaged just 2.10 points per competitive drive at San Jose State. They had managed 1.27 against North Dakota State a week earlier.
Nevada held UCLA to 303 yards and 125 on the ground while its own offense repeatedly handed the ball back. Against FBS opponents, the Wolf Pack have allowed 1.62 points per competitive drive and touchdowns on fewer than one in five. If they tackle Humphrey and Sibley early in the down, they can bring a defense that’s held opponents to 30.3% on third down after a quarterback who’s been giving defenders chances with the ball.
The Wolf Pack have listed AJ Bianco first at quarterback after Luke Duncan threw three interceptions in the opening 7:27 at UCLA. Bianco completed six of 13 passes for 71 yards in relief. Back Dominic Kelley gives Nevada a way to ease him into the game, although New Mexico has allowed 81.6 rushing yards per game. Lobos defenders Darren Agu and Brett Karhu have six sacks apiece, so a run that goes nowhere can leave Bianco with two hard downs in a hurry.
New Mexico vs. Nevada pick, best bet
New Mexico has allowed just 0.88 points per competitive FBS drive. Nevada may need a head start to get Kelley and Bianco within striking distance, and returner Ky Woods has given them one before. He averages 32.3 yards per kickoff return and took one 90 yards against San Jose State. The Lobos can shorten fields themselves with a defense that has intercepted 17 passes. Either team can turn an otherwise poor offensive series into points for the other.
I lean under 38.5 because both fronts can end possessions without needing a takeaway. New Mexico has the backs to threaten four touchdowns if Nevada’s tackling deteriorates, which leaves less room here than the Lobos’ defensive averages suggest. Over full fields, I expect the Wolf Pack to force enough third downs to make New Mexico settle and the Lobos to give Bianco very little room to recover when Nevada falls behind schedule.
Best bet: Under 38.5 (-112).
Projected score: New Mexico 23, Nevada 13.
Best Bet: Nevada vs. New Mexico u38.5 total points scored (-110)
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