We’ve got a strong Premier League slate on tap this weekend, and our appetizer is a Friday match between Everton and Coventry. The surging Toffees have worked their way into the top half of the table and continue pursuing their goal of European football. Standing in their way is a resolute Coventry side determined to stay out of the relegation zone. This one will be an exciting clash.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Everton are -140 favorites to win within 90 minutes, with a draw priced at +300. Coventry’s moneyline is set at +360.
Everton vs. Coventry Pick, Best Bet
Everton continues to succeed thanks to their defense. They’ve recorded four clean sheets in nine matches, the third most in the league, behind Arsenal and Brighton. They’re great at winning possession in the final third and keeping things simple for top-rated goalkeeper Jordan Pickford. An excellent midfield group has helped phenomenally; James Garner is an outstanding defender who covers a lot of ground, and the Harrison Armstrong-Hayden Hackney duo are coming into their own.
The problems come in attack. Thierno Barry is coming into his own as a play-finisher and has scored some huge goals early in the season. But they can’t find consistency on the outside; Jack Grealish had only just gotten up to speed when he ran into disciplinary issues, Tyrique George hasn’t been consistent enough, and manager David Moyes doesn’t trust Tyler Dibling enough to play him. Merlin Röhl, often deployed as a wing-back, made their last start on the right wing to bring some extra defense. It’ll be interesting to see whether Moyes deploys Röhl again or opts for a more attacking option like Brennan Johnson, given the matchup.
Coventry will face another uphill battle here. Despite the poor underlying numbers—they’re 18th in xG and 16th in xG conceded—they’ve managed three wins in their last five contests. Those victories over Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, and Sunderland helped pull them from dead last to 16th, and they are two points clear of the drop zone. Bagging 10+ wins is almost certainly enough to stay afloat, and they are well on their way if this pace sustains.
Their offensive woes run much deeper than Everton’s, and they start with their inability to possess the ball. Only Hull City has a lower possession total than Coventry through the first nine match weeks, and even they have scored more goals than Coventry. Players like Taiwo Awoniyi and Jack Rudoni have shouldered a heavy attacking burden, and they need others to step up on the counter to find key goals.
Everton rarely dominates possession, but they’ve succeeded this season when they do, posting a 3-1-0 record in such games. Even without their best stand-still creator, Jack Grealish, the Toffees should find a way to break the line. Their resolute defense should keep Coventry off the board.
