Last season, the New York Knicks slogged through a 2-9 stretch in early January in which they looked like a far cry from the team that would eventually go on to win the title in June. Mercifully for Knicks fans, all the team needed was a home game against the Brooklyn Nets on January 21 to steady the ship.
New York has had a quiet start to its title defense, going just 2-4 in its first six games, but tonight’s 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Nets at Madison Square Garden could be an opportunity to get its season in full swing.
The Knicks should have a mostly healthy roster, as only Jose Alvarado (ankle) is questionable. For Brooklyn, Egor Dëmin (leg), Tyler Bilodeau (G-League), Joshua Jefferson (G-League), Grant Nelson (G-League), and Ben Saraf (G-League) are all out. Mikel Brown Jr. rested in yesterday’s win over the Indiana Pacers, but he’s not on the injury report.
New York is a massive 14.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-980 Moneyline), with the point total set to 219.5. The Nets are +650 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down tonight’s Battle of the Boroughs and offer a prediction.
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks preview, prediction
After riding a wave of hot shooting and swarming defense to the NBA title, the Knicks have had their ups and downs. They’ve still been solid defensively, ranking 14th on that side of the ball so far, but they’ve had their struggles offensively, with the 11th-worst offense in the league. Six of New York’s top seven players by field goal attempts per game (Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Landry Shamet, and Miles McBride) have shot 40.0% or worse from the field, so the Knicks should certainly improve. New York is still the second-favorite to win the East.
Brooklyn was the last remaining winless team in the East until yesterday, when it got off the mark with its victory over Indiana. Despite having the third-worst offense in the league and the 12th-worst defense, the Nets have shown some signs. Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. are a solid veteran forward duo and Brown, despite shooting just 27.3% from the field overall, has displayed flashes of the promise that made him the sixth overall pick. Brooklyn harbors no expectation of making the postseason, so developing Brown and Dëmin into the backcourt of the future will be head coach Jordi Fernández’s priority.
Nets at Knicks pick, best bet
As mediocre as the Knicks have been offensively, they should still have no problem controlling the interior. New York has managed to get to the restricted area the fifth-most times per game of any team this season, but it’s finished at the second-lowest rate, in part because Anunoby (who made 68.4% of his layups last season) has canned only 55.9% of his close-range tries. The Nets have been the only team to finish less accurately than the Knicks, and while Brown (22.2%) has been a major part of that, rookie guards don’t tend to finish efficiently anyway. Both teams have allowed opponents to get downhill at similar rates, but New York has done a better job forcing misses, and given Karl-Anthony Towns’ defensive improvements, his edge as an individual rim protector over Day’Ron Sharpe should be sustainable.
Both teams have been stellar on the glass so far this season, as the Knicks rank third in rebounding percentage and Brooklyn eighth. That should be sustainable for New York, at least, given that it finished fifth in total rebounding percentage last season; despite adding Randle, who averaged at least 10 boards per contest in each of his All-NBA seasons, I’m not sure the Nets have enough on their roster to sustain their rise from 27th in 2025/26. Brooklyn has been the better transition team so far, though in the long run, I expect the Knicks to reclaim the edge that they had last season, especially given Randle’s turnover concerns. The Nets have also gotten in frequent foul trouble, though Randle’s physicality should make their high free throw rate sustainable.
Neither team has shot the ball particularly well, as they rank 13th and 14th in three-point percentage, but New York has made it slightly easier for itself, generating more wide-open looks at a marginally higher rate. Given that Randle has shot 36.4% from deep so far, slightly higher than his career average, and Porter has been as accurate as he was last season, the Knicks are more due to benefit from shooting regression. Both teams have gotten fairly unlucky that opponents have nailed more than two-fifths of their uncontested threes, but Brooklyn has given up the fourth-most wide-open looks this season and New York the eighth-fewest. The Nets were better at closing out last season, but Randle doesn’t contest jumpers very frequently, so the Knicks’ edge could be sustainable.
Brooklyn has had a couple of solid performances against difficult opposition, only losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers by four points and the Boston Celtics in overtime before picking up that road win over the Pacers, and New York just hasn’t been as effective in crunch time as usual. Still, the Knicks have still been the better team in virtually every facet of basketball despite playing far below their standards, so a get-right win feels inevitable. Anunoby’s and Brunson’s layups will start to fall tonight against the Nets’ shoddy rim protection.
