It’s November 1 and Week 8’s Sunday slate is upon us. We knew the Titans were in a rebuild already, but following a blockbuster trade earlier this week that shipped out one of the best players in the NFL, the goal for the remainder of their season became even clearer. Meanwhile, the Bengals are playoff hopefuls with some high expectations as they host what should be a very winnable game.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Titans vs. Bengals in NFL Week 8.
Titans vs. Bengals prediction, preview
We’ve said for several years now that if the Bengals could put together even a league-average defense, they should be considered true Super Bowl contenders. Well, folks, this could be the year. They’re 4-2 and sit third place in the AFC North standings, but they’re just half a game shy of first since they’ve played one fewer game than the teams ahead of them. Overall, this group does have the makings of one of the NFL’s best teams – they average 27.2 PPG, fourth most, and are giving up 20.3 PPG on the other end, eighth best. Joe Burrow is playing his best football, leading all quarterbacks with a 71.7% completion rate while throwing for 1,653 yards with a 15-3 TD-INT ratio. The Bengals are first in PROE and sit fifth in EPA/dropback, so while the run game hasn’t been stellar amidst a down year from Chase Brown, the passing attack has stepped up their game. Tee Higgins leads the team with 33 receptions and 571 receiving yards, hauling in two touchdowns; Ja’Marr Chase has 32 grabs for 351 yards and five touchdowns. And while the run defense has been a smidge inconsistent, there’s plenty of talent up front and the pass defense has been impressive at eighth in EPA/dropback allowed. As long as they’re playing like this, they can hang with most teams.
The Titans have no such outlook. They instead hold a 1-6 record on the campaign, and while expectations weren’t particularly high for year one under Rob Saleh, this team has still underwhelmed quite a bit. Now, the front office seems to be embracing change – superstar defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons was traded to the Bears on Thursday for a pair of first-round picks. Tennessee is fully embracing the rebuild and may not be too mad if the losses continue to accumulate, though quarterback Cam Ward needs to show anything that suggests he’s worthy of keeping his starting job in the long term. He ranks 33rd among 35 qualifying players at the position in EPA/dropback, tossing just four touchdowns to five interceptions with 1,179 passing yards in seven games. Rookie wideout Carnell Tate, who leads the team in receiving with 34 grabs and 413 yards, has been ruled out along with second-string halfback Tyjae Spears. That leaves Tony Pollard and Wan’Dale Robinson as the top playmakers on an offense that averages only 15.4 PPG, second fewest of any team. The defense has been fairly respectable while conceding only 22.3 PPG, but it’s simply not enough to overcome an offensive unit that falls 31st in EPA/play with bottom-seven marks in success rate and explosive play rate.
Titans vs. Bengals pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Bengals as a -12.5 favorite at home with -675 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Titans were a +490 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 46.5 combined points.
Usually, a 12.5-point spread would be way too wide for my liking. This time, though, it almost doesn’t seem wide enough. Cincinnati is a better team in every regard. The quarterback comparison isn’t even close, the offensive weapons are miles better, and the defense even has an edge as well. It already seemed likely that the Bengals’ offense would run wild to score a ton of points – they put up five touchdowns in the second half alone last week against the Ravens – but the Simmons trade only makes it more likely that Cincy pours on the points. Given the outlook for Burrow and Co. as well as how poor the Tennessee offense has been – and that Tate won’t play – the Bengals should cover comfortably.
