Ted Hurst III has carved out a vertical role in Tampa Bay, carrying nearly a third of the team’s air yards, but the fantasy results have been hard to count on. He has been held without a catch in two of his last three games. That could change this week, with Emeka Egbuka ruled out with his foot injury and the Buccaneers hosting an Atlanta defense that has given up plenty down the field, which is exactly where Hurst lives. Find out whether you should start or sit Ted Hurst III in Week 8.
Ted Hurst III Start or Sit Advice for Week 8
Hurst’s role is clearly defined. He carries 31.5% of Tampa Bay’s air yards despite an 11.6% target share, and he averages 15.3 yards per catch. He also has four red zone targets and a touchdown.
Atlanta is the right kind of opponent for that profile. The Falcons allow 120.3 air yards per game to wide receivers against a league average of 102.9, along with 34.1 PPR points per game and 169.9 receiving yards per game. They have also surrendered 22 red zone targets to the position, well above the league mark of 13.4.
The Falcons’ cornerbacks are also banged up. A.J. Terrell Jr. and C.J. Henderson were both limited with groin injuries this week after starting the week with full practices, and Billy Bowman Jr. was limited as he works back from a hamstring injury.
Atlanta has faced Pittsburgh, Carolina, Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco, a slate that includes several productive passing attacks, and opponents have thrown 15% above league average against the Falcons. The defense is not quite as porous as the raw totals suggest, but it still gives up chunk plays.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Ted Hurst III in Week 8
Tampa Bay’s passing game has been one of the weaker units in football. The Buccaneers are throwing for 150.4 yards per game with a 73.6 team passer rating, and they generate just 63.4 air yards per game as a team. A deep threat needs a passing game capable of pushing the ball, and Tampa Bay has rarely done that this season.
Hurst’s own efficiency adds to the risk. He has caught just 11 of his 23 targets, a 47.8% catch rate, and averages only 3.3 targets per game. His weekly line has gone 6.6, 4.7, 11.0, 4.5, 0.0, 7.0 and 0.0, and he drew just one target in Week 7. A role built on a handful of deep shots can disappear quickly when the throws do not connect.
Egbuka’s absence does not guarantee a bigger role. Egbuka leads the Bucs with 49 targets at 8.2 per game, but Chris Godwin Jr. and Cade Otton sit ahead of Hurst in the pecking order, so Hurst’s gain is more likely to be a few extra deep shots than a flood of targets.
Fantasy Outlook for Ted Hurst III in Week 8
Hurst is a Borderline Start in Week 8, best used as a deep-league flex. Egbuka’s absence opens up targets, Atlanta’s secondary gives deep threats room to work, and his downfield role fits the matchup, but Tampa Bay’s passing game and his own inconsistency keep him out of safer territory.
Deep-league managers covering byes from the Giants, Saints, Texans and 49ers can treat him as a boom-or-bust flex play with Egbuka sidelined. In shallower formats, there is too little floor to protect managers if the big play does not arrive.