Check out my NFL Week 8 predictions and picks in the best bets cheat sheet. I’m publishing on Friday this week, but will comeback with adds and updates throughout the weekend, so be sure to check back leading up to the games on Sunday.
Let’s breakdown some NFL Week 8 best bets.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
The Chiefs got manhandled on Sunday night in Seattle, losing 20-3. It was the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he failed to get the offense into the red zone. Kansas City remains on the road to face another solid defense in Denver. It’s also a decent revenge spot for the Broncos, who lost at Kansas City on Monday Night Football back in Week 1, by a final of 31-10.
That said, the Broncos are a disaster on offense, and I can’t buy in. Regression has to be coming for this team. Denver showed some flash in Arizona on Sunday, but I can’t put much stock in that. The rest of its games have featured some fluky wins and horrid offense. None more than two weeks ago in an overtime win over the Seahawks, in which Denver barely moved the ball at home.
I’m expecting Kansas City’s defense to show up in this one and limit plays from Bo Nix, who has been held under 200 passing yards in more than half his starts. Look for a bounce-back from Mahomes, who is coming off his worst game of the season, against the toughest defense he’s faced. Playing in Denver is a tall task, but the Chiefs have a balance that the Broncos do not. Remember, Kenneth Walker shredded this defense for 173 rushing yards back in the opener.
Denver is just due for some regression in my mind, particularly against strong competition. With the Chiefs in a spot to rebound off their worst showing of the season, that’s where I’m looking to buy.
NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (-115)
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Monday 8:20pm ET)
The Seahawks go from one big primetime game at home to the next, this time welcoming the Bears. Chicago was in the news this week with the addition of Jeffery Simmons, showing its all-in on a Super Bowl run. While the Bears will be a contender in the NFC, they’ll have their hands full on Monday night.
The only comparable defense that the Bears faced this season was against the Vikings back in Week 2. That’s the game Caleb Williams got injured, but it was late in the game, and the Bears managed just three points. As tremendous as Ben Johnson is, I trust this Seattle defense at home to get stops.
This will be a challenge for the Seahawks as well, no doubt. I’m not expecting the dominant performance we just saw against the Chiefs, but they’ll make the Bears work to score and potentially force some mistakes. It comes down to Sam Darnold on the other side. If he can limit mistakes, the Seahawks should be able to put up points on Chicago. The Simmons addition is massive, but he’ll have been in the building for less than a week. The Bears can be had on the defensive end at the moment — giving up 24 to the Patriots, 23 to the Falcons and 31 to the Packers over their last three games.
I’ll back the defending champs to show the Bears they still have some work to do. Maybe we’ll see a rematch in January.
NFL Pick: Seahawks -3 (-115)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (Sunday – 4:25pm ET)*
*ML Parlay with the first leg on Saturday night
Mike Vrabel is 5-0 straight up and ATS following a loss during his tenure as head coach of the Patriots. Drake Maye is 14-0 straight up as a favorite of three or more points as the starting quarterback of the Patriots. Good spot for the Pats to bounce-back following the loss to the Bears, with a long week to prep following Thursday Night Football.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are riding high following their first win of the season. This is the worst team in the NFL, and I’m not expecting them to start stacking wins when the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft is in sight. Expect the Patriots to get back on track, even with a thin WR room.
While teams like the Rams and Cowboys stuck out to pair the Patriots with, I don’t trust either enough. So I ended up going with Ohio State as the other leg of this moneyline parlay. The Buckeyes are without starting QB, Julian Sayin, but have a lot of other positives in the matchup at USC. Ohio State is off a bye, and should have a lot of success running the ball against a soft Trojans’ defense. After what Wisconsin did last week, the Buckeyes have the blue print to dominate on defense.
CFB Best Bet: Ohio State/New England Patriots ML Parlay (-115)
