Check out my NFL Week 7 predictions and picks in the best bets cheat sheet. I’m publishing three plays on Thursday this week, including a TNF play. I’ll comeback with adds and updates throughout the weekend, so be sure to check back leading up to the games on Sunday.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
The Patriots have ripped off three straight wins, but are limping into Thursday Night Football in Chicago. New England has both Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins on IR, a pair of starting offensive lineman have been ruled out for this game, along with a starting cornerback in Carlton Davis. A third starter on the OL has been tagged as questionable, along with a couple more members of the secondary.
Long story short, it’s all hands on deck for the Pats in this one.
While the Patriots got a win over the Jets on Sunday, it was not all that convincing. Multiple players, along with Mike Vrabel, said that the team has to play better. Decimated by injuries on the road on a short week is going to make that tough.
The Bears should be some of the more stiff competition that New England has seen so far this season. Caleb Williams returned on Sunday in Atlanta, and led the Bears to a win. Chicago put up 31 points against a solid Falcons defense, the team’s most since dropping 59 back in Week 1.
I trust Ben Johnson to have some good stuff drawn up here at home on Thursday night. Johnson is 17-4-1 ATS in primetime games as HC of the Bears and OC of the Lions combined, per Action Network.
That leaves the defense for the Bears. It’s by no means great, but I think is better than what most of us were expecting. At home in primetime on a night the Bears will be celebrating Mike Ditka, I think they can take advantage of a Patriots offense that’ll be missing key contributors at WR and OL.
NFL Pick: Bears -3 (-102)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints (Sunday 9:30am ET – France)
Germie Bernard is becoming Aaron Rodgers’ dude. Plain and simple. It reminds me a bit of when Rodgers forced the Green Bay coaches to get Allen Lazard onto the field early in his career, and the two wound up playing together for years. When Rodgers finds a guy he trusts, he’s loyal. And he loves this rookie out of Alabama, who he refers to as “Germ.”
Prior to Roman Wilson going down with an injury, Bernard had just seven receptions for 60 yards in four games. In two games since then, “Germ” has ripped off 17 receptions for 167 yards and a touchdown on 21 targets. The game logs were a 6-80-0 line against the Colts, followed by 11-87-1 in Tampa.
Now Rodgers and Bernard have a shot to grow their bond against a New Orleans defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed. I backed the over last week at 44+ yards, and it obviously has gone up this week. But given the volume of the past two weeks and the matchup, I still don’t think the market has caught up.
NFL Pick: Germie Bernard 55+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1pm ET)
I used the Colts in a moneyline parlay last week and paid the price. It was an awful loss by Indy to a dreadful Titans team. Tennessee rarely gets a win, but when it does, it’s been allergic to building any kind of momentum the following week. Dating back to 2022, the Titans are not only 0-12 following their last 12 wins, they are 0-12 ATS, losing by an average of double digits.
I’m not fully sold on the Browns, but they are a solid team. The defense will provide far more resistance than the Colts did last Sunday. I’m pretty neutral on Cleveland here, but trust the spot enough to say it won’t blow this against Tennessee. The Browns have a good thing going, and a near pick’em price tag here is disrespectful. I’ll make the Titans prove they can stack some wins.
NFL Pick: Browns ML (-125)
