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Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico State Aggies prediction, pick for College Football on Wednesday 10/21/26

Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico State Aggies prediction, pick for College Football on Wednesday 10/21/26

College Football Sports Betting Picks DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

Updated:

By: Dan Johnson

Phil Longo’s Bearkats have gone ten quarters without a touchdown, and there hardly seems an end to the drought in sight. His Air Raid hung just six points in the last two games—to Liberty and Western Kentucky—leaving Sam Houston’s weary defense to drag an increasingly helpless offense through October. New Mexico State arrives at Bowers Stadium for tonight’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff after stewing over a 22-3 loss at FIU for two weeks. Neither coach has much offense to admire, and I get the sense this might be a weird one tonight. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Sam Houston Bearkats and the New Mexico State Aggies.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sam Houston vs. NMSU prediction, preview

Running back James Jones gives the Aggies somewhere I’m happy to start against this number. He has chewed through six opponents for 599 rushing yards at a splendid 6.5 per carry, including 155 against WKU. Sam Houston allows 200.3 rushing yards per game so far, and in that Liberty game, the Cardinals battered them for 297. Aggies coach Tony Sanchez will likely try to feed Jones early, find a way for his offense to impose some sort of will against a beleaguered defense. Productive first-down carries would give New Mexico State chances to run again on second down, sparing Adam Damante obvious passing situations. Those have been the biggest issue for NMSU.

The Aggies confirmed Damante will start, although backup QBs Trey Hedden and Kalani McLeod also received extensive work during the bye. Damante squeezed just 104 yards from 22 attempts at FIU before Hedden replaced him earlier this year. The Bearkats’ secondary has been holding opponents to 50% completions through six games. Cornerback Ishmel Atkins and his teammates have allowed no completion longer than 36 yards, so explosives are altogether off the menu against this secondary. Jones has to draw help toward the line on interior carries, creating room for Damante to find his receivers, especially TK King. Even then, an early penalty or lost yardage could strand the Aggies in passing situations they’re ill-equipped to salvage. We’ve seen that before.

Bearkats QB Landyn Locke faces a nasty protection mismatch, and that makes me big-time nervous. Sam Houston started true freshmen Myles Joseph and Tr’e Williams together in each of their past two games, and the Bearkats have surrendered 17 sacks through six. New Mexico State defensive end Gabe Peterson already has 4.5, including two at FIU. With the Aggies allowing only 3.5 yards per rush, freshman back MJ Dowdy will do all he can to rescue Locke from long passing downs. Dowdy’s 55 yards on 14 carries against WKU were good to see, if not great; Sam Houston still finished with a dreadful 177 total yards.

NMSU vs. Sam Houston pick, best bet

Longo should work through receiver Grady O’Neill underneath and give Locke quicker throws. O’Neill leads the Bearkats with 28 catches, and Sanchez acknowledged this week that the middle of his defense needs better coverage. There’s Sam Houston’s route back into the game. Returner Tim Burns Jr. can shorten the field, too: his 50 punt-return yards against WKU exceeded the Bearkats’ total from their first five games. Staying home for a second consecutive Wednesday spares that patched-up line another trip.

Damante’s low ceiling as a passer seem to be the reason this margin is so narrow; his matchup against the Bearkats’ secondary why laying less than a field goal seems juicier than normal tonight. Jones should hopefully carry enough Aggies possessions into scoring range to give New Mexico State a lead out of which Sam Houston is ill-equipped to throw their way. I’ll lay 2.5, with -115 my limit.

Best bet: New Mexico State -2.5 (-115).

Projected score: New Mexico State 24, Sam Houston 17.

Best Bet: New Mexico State -2.5 (-115) at Sam Houston

For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.