A pair of 3-3 squads will be looking to get on the right side of the win column tonight. Middle Tennessee will be playing the second of seven straight CUSA games, an opportunity to bolster its standing within the conference. On the other side, FIU will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss last week vs. Jacksonville State. Can the Panthers turn things around on Tuesday?
The Panthers are listed as ten-point favorites over the Blue Raiders, with the total set at O/U 46.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Tuesday’s Middle Tennessee vs. FIU Week 8 matchup.
Middle Tennessee vs. FIU prediction, preview
In many ways, these two squads are mirrors of each other. That’s especially true on offense, where scoring has been difficult to come by for the Blue Raiders. Derek Mason’s crew is averaging a Conference USA-worst 321.5 yards per game. Granted, a 33-point output last week vs. Delaware should give fans reason for optimism. This is a run-heavy approach, leaning heavily on the backfield. Running back Antonio Martin Jr. has churned out a team-leading 433 rushing yards (5.2 YPC). However, Middle Tennessee has only scored four touchdowns on the ground this season. At quarterback, Roman Gagliano is completing just 58.5% of his pass attempts.
It’s not as if it’ll be easy to move the ball this evening at Pitbull Stadium. Florida International has been one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, holding opponents to a conference-best 266.0 yards per game. This group loves generating pressure, already racking up 14.0 sacks and 38.0 tackles for loss. Through the air, the secondary has managed to snag five interceptions as well. Defensive linemen Elisha Baldridge (7.0 TFL), Kenton Simmons (6.0 TFL) and DeeJay Holmes Jr. (5.0 sacks) are difference makers up front. FIU did surrender a season-worst 27 points against Jacksonville State in Week 7. However, none of the team’s other five opponents have tallied more than 20 points.
The other side of the ball is where things get tricky for the Panthers. Self-inflicted wounds have been an issue, with quarterback JJ Kohl already coughing up seven interceptions. The gunslinger has made up for it with a conference-best 243.0 passing yards per game. On the ground, Devonte Lyons and Anthony Carrie have combined for 526 rushing yards and two touchdowns. However, FIU is only gaining a meager 3.4 yards per rush attempt this season. Keep an eye out for Maguire Anderson, among CUSA’s best wideouts with 534 receiving yards and four touchdowns. If there’s one thing this offense does exceptionally well, it’s ball control. Florida International is averaging 33:30 minutes of possession per game, ninth-best in the nation.
Considering Middle Tennessee’s offensive issues, forcing a turnover or two is crucial tonight. As previously mentioned, Kohl has a knack for tossing picks as well. MTST has forced eight total turnovers, a decent margin through six games. Unfortunately, this group has had some difficulty inside the trenches. The Blue Raiders are allowing 5.31 yards per rush attempt to opponents, second-worst in Conference USA. While FIU doesn’t run the ball efficiently, they are committed to establishing the ground game. Limiting the damage up front is essential if the visitors are to earn an upset this evening.
Best Bet: FIU -9.5 (-126)
The Blue Raiders can make big plays on defense and run the ball fairly well. Those two traits are among the only things they do well, however. FIU’s defense is legit, especially when playing at home. To make things even more daunting, the Panthers bleed the clock better than almost anyone. Middle Tennessee has only reached the red zone 13 times this season; this isn’t a team that creates many scoring opportunities. Florida International has what it takes to earn a two-score win on Tuesday.
