Two weeks ago I would have been begging the league to flex this game out of a primetime slot, but it honestly doesn’t look so bad at the moment. While the Chicago Bears have been underwhelming for the season as a whole, they are infinitely more watchable with Justin Fields ($11,200) under center. As for the Minnesota Vikings, they’ve dug themselves out of a massive early-season hole to be in the thick of the NFC Wild Card hunt.
I’m fully invested. Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs MIN)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Justin Fields ($16,800 CP) – Fields returned to action in Week 11 after a nearly two-month absence, and it didn’t take the former first-round pick long to showcase what makes him a special talent at the quarterback position. Fields completed 16 of his 23 pass attempts for 169 yards and a touchdown, but it was his dual-threat ability that was truly on display, with the Ohio State product scrambling 18 times for 104 yards. Fields started this season slowly, with disappointing fantasy outputs in his first three starts. Heck, he threw for just 99 yards versus Kansas City in Week 3. However, despite those poor results, Fields is one of only five QBs to enter Week 12 averaging at least 0.6 DKFP per drop back, joining the likes of Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. In the final two full starts Fields made prior to injuring his thumb, he produced 32.9 DKFP and 32.98 DKFP, respectively. Few assets can match his lofty ceiling.
T.J. Hockenson ($13,500 CP) – Hockenson has been the best tight end in football this season and the competition hasn’t been all that close, either. Entering Week 12, no qualified TE was averaging more targets per game (9.3) or garnering a higher share of their team’s air yards (26%) than the Iowa product. Hockenson also hasn’t missed a beat with Josh Dobbs ($10,000) at quarterback for the Vikings. Honestly, there’s a case to be made that’s he’s been ever better. In Dobbs’ first start for Minnesota in Week 10, Hockenson set a season-high in targets (15), receiving yards (134) and DKFP (33.4). In the three games Dobbs has played in purple, Hockenson leads all tight ends in targets (33), receptions (22), receiving yards (259) and DKFP (56.9). There’s just no way to ignore this guy. Let’s just hope Josh Oliver ($2,600) doesn’t steal his touchdown for a second straight week.
FLEX Plays
Khalil Herbert ($6,800) – More than anything, the Bears are a team that’s going to run the football. Chicago comes into this tilt in possession of a 49.2% rushing rate — the third-highest mark in the NFL. That figure jumps to 56.1% in its last three games and a stunning 64.8% in last weekend’s loss to the Lions. Yes, a lot of that is the aforementioned Fields, but the Bears aren’t afraid to feature their RB1, as well. Tonight, with D’Onta Foreman (ankle/shin) ruled out, that man is unquestionably Herbert. Look for the former sixth-round pick to flirt with 20 carries if this contest stays in a somewhat neutral script.
K.J. Osborn ($5,600) – With reports circulating that Justin Jefferson ($11,800; hamstring) is unlikely to be activated from the Vikings’ IR for yet another week, there’s still time to try and exploit Minnesota’s secondary receiving options in DFS. In particular, Osborn seems like a nice buy-low candidate. Though the wideout finished Week 11 with just a single reception for seven yards, Osborn actually led all Minnesota WRs with a 95.9% snap share against the Broncos. Considering Bears D/ST ($3,800) is surrendering the 10th-most yards per opponent pass attempt this season (6.7), Osborn should be able to find more success in his second week back from the concussion protocols.
Fades
Alexander Mattison ($7,400) – Mattison has been an easy fade for most of the season, as he’s only exceeded 15.0 DKFP twice in 11 games. In fact, of the 29 running backs to register at least 105 carries, Mattison ranks 28th in DKFP earned per snap (0.24), trailing only the Packers’ AJ Dillon. Gross. One major reason for this? Mattison is not involved in the passing attack. In Week 11, despite running 20 routes, Mattison was only targeted twice. That translated into one reception for a negative gain. By comparison, Ty Chandler ($5,800) ran only seven routes, but was targeted on four of them. That’s not to say I love Chandler on this slate, either, as his salary has skyrocketed in recent games, yet it does not paint a great picture of Mattison’s pass-catching abilities. Add in that Chicago is allowing the fewest opponent rushing yards per contest (79.5) and there isn’t much reason to get excited with this positional grouping.
THE OUTCOME
I’m having a difficult time figuring out how this spread is just three points. Sure, the Vikings lost to a red-hot Broncos team on SNF last weekend, but they were the dominant team in that contest, out-gaining Denver by 100 yards of total offense. Minnesota just happened to also turn the ball over three times. The Vikings have are 6-0 ATS in their last six contests and the Bears haven’t won any of their last 12 divisional games. Give me the home team.
Final Score: Minnesota 24, Chicago 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (CHI vs MIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
