The concept of the “Big Six” in the Premier League isn’t as strong now as it was in the 2010’s, as Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, and Manchester United have struggled in recent campaigns and well-run smaller clubs like Brighton and Bournemouth have had seasons in the top six.
The Seagulls have been one of the stories of the Premier League this season, as they currently trail only Manchester City and Arsenal. They’ll continue their stellar campaign on Sunday with a 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) home clash against Crystal Palace, a mid-table side for the past several seasons.
Brighton is a -190 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Eagles are +450. A draw is available at +360.
Below, I’ll break down this battle of avian clubs and provide my favorite bet.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Best Bet:
- Brighton -1.5 (+125): It’s a battle of unstoppable force against movable object, as the Seagulls have the best attack in the Premier League by many metrics and Crystal Palace its worst defense. Brighton’s form is simply too hot, as it has won each of its last three domestic games by two or more goals and added a four-goal Europa Conference League win on Thursday. The Eagles have arguably been fortunate not to be in the drop zone.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace prediction, pick
The Seagulls have been in incredible form; after losing a 4-3 thriller to the Blues in Matchweek 2 and drawing with Leeds in Matchweek 3, they’ve won three straight Premier League games by at least two goals each, recording a clean sheet in each one and shutting out two teams who qualified for Europe last season (Arsenal and Sunderland). Additionally, Brighton opened its season with a 4-0 win over Aston Villa, and it’s scored eight goals without conceding in its three Europa Conference League matches (two qualifiers against Tromsø and a League Phase match against Kauno Žalgiris). Crystal Palace also drew with Leeds, but it lost to Everton, Manchester City, and Ipswich Town, and it is just 1-1 in the Europa League. The Eagles’ win over Nottingham Forest was critical in lifting them further away from the relegation zone, but they also don’t seem to have made any progress towards their first top-nine finish since 1990/91.
The Seagulls have gotten contributions from players both young and old. Maxim De Cuyper (age 25), Charalampos Kostoulas (19), Malick Yalcouyé (20), and Jack Hinshelwood (21) have each recorded two goals, but 35-year-old Pascal Groß has been the connecting piece. Groß, whose prior best campaign was a nine-goal, eight-assist 2022/23 season, won Premier League Player of the Month in September. Thanks to Groß’s steadying presence and the electrifying youngsters, Brighton has had the best attack in the league, scoring a league-high 18 goals and producing the most xG of chances. The Seagulls have also attempted the second-most shots, getting the most on target, and their attack might be even better if they had not completed crosses at the second-lowest rate. Defensively, Brighton concedes some solid opportunities, as it ranks ninth-to-last in expected goals allowed and dead last in shot-in-box percentage, but its opponents have turned those chances into the third-fewest shots on goal and just five goals. The Seagulls win ground duels at the second-lowest rate and have been the worst team against set pieces, but they’ve forced the most high turnovers with their press. In addition, Brighton has arguably the ultimate failsafe between the sticks; Bart Verbruggen ranks second in the league in goals prevented.
Crystal Palace has had a pretty well-balanced attack, as although it only has one player with multiple goals (Tyrick Mitchell), six different players, including summer signing Anan Khalaili, have one goal each. Kamada has been the main playmaker, as he has a trio of assists, including a pair in the Matchweek 4 defeat against the Tractor Boys. However, that well-balanced attack hasn’t necessarily been a strong one, as the Eagles rank ninth-to-last in expected goals, third-to-last in touches in the box, second-to-last in total shots, and eighth-to-last in shots on target. They’ve paired that below-average attack with a worse defense; so far, Crystal Palace has conceded the fourth-most goals, the most xG, the most shots, the most touches in the box, and the second-most shots on target. It’s also allowed shots in the box at the second-highest rate. The Eagles have been active in one-on-ones, leading the league in tackles and winning ground duels at the fifth-highest rate, but they’ve been bad at converting their high turnovers into shots. Walter Benítez ranks third in goals prevented while filling in for the injured Dean Henderson (ankle), but it’s possible that Henderson could be back in the lineup, and he ranks sixth-to-last in that stat this season.
Relying solely on xG can be a trap, but the Seagulls’ margins on top and Crystal Palace’s on the bottom are pretty large. Brighton has managed 1.14 more xG than any other team, and it and Chelsea have both scored five goals from set pieces, two more than the next-best squad. On the other hand, the Eagles have allowed 2.27 more xG, two more shots, and 43 more touches in the box than the next-worst side. Although the Seagulls have been terrible at defending set pieces, Crystal Palace isn’t capable of taking advantage of that weakness, and Brighton’s ability to score from headers (a league-high four goals) aligns with the Eagles’ struggles (a league-high four allowed). The Seagulls should pick up another easy win against a team that Opta’s expected table has in the drop zone.
