The Premier League can be unforgiving, and margins are slim between the middle of the table and the bottom.
Bournemouth and Sunderland understand it better than anyone; last season, the Cherries and the Black Cats enjoyed magical seasons, as Bournemouth qualified for the Europa League for the first time in club history by finishing sixth and Sunderland for the first time in more than a half-century by finishing seventh. This season, they are both in an early relegation battle.
I’m still not sold that Sunday’s 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) match between them on England’s South Coast will end up being a relegation six-pointer — the Cherries, in fact, are seen as equally likely to finish top six (+900) as to be relegated — but every point is valuable.
Bournemouth is a +110 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to pick up its first victory of the season, and the Black Cats are +255. There are +245 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this clash of 2025/26 surprises and provide my favorite bet.
Bournemouth vs. Sunderland Best Bet:
- Bournemouth Win and U3.5 (+190): Both of these teams deserve to be higher in the table than their current positions, and I’d be highly surprised if either is relegated come season’s end. The Cherries have the only true standout unit, as they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest xG this season, and Sunderland’s attack is slightly less intimidating if Brian Brobbey can’t play the full 90 minutes. Both goalkeepers have been awful this season, but if they regress to their 2025/26 form, Bournemouth is better-suited to pull out a low-scoring one.
Bournemouth vs. Sunderland prediction, pick
Neither team has had the easiest schedule, but both have certainly disappointed early on in this Premier League campaign. The Cherries can hardly be blamed for losing tightly-fought battles against Manchester City and Liverpool, but a 5-1 defeat to Chelsea in their most recent match and merely a draw against Newcastle aren’t the most confidence-inspiring. Similarly, while Sunderland can feel content with a 5-3 loss against the Sky Blues and 2-0 results against Arsenal and Brighton (the three teams currently atop the table), it had to take at least a point in its season opener against newly-promoted Ipswich Town but conceded in the 90th minute to walk away with a loss. Both teams have been perfect so far in the Europa League, with Bournemouth’s 2-1 road result over continental mainstays Real Sociedad the most impressive result either have put up.
The Cherries have continued to get contributions from young talent, even though their top prospect, Eli Junior Kroupi, has been out all season after suffering a broken foot in preseason training. Marcus Tavernier has three goals, and Evanilson has recorded three assists. Bournemouth might miss Alex Scott, a standout youngster who’s out with a thigh injury, but it still has some solid depth, and Brazilian star Rayan is due for his first goal of the season eventually. The Cherries still rank sixth-to-last in expected goals and seventh-to-last in goals while being sloppy with their distribution, but they’ve attempted among the most shots on goal while generating good chances from set pieces especially. However, despite the lopsided Matchweek 6 result, Bournemouth has still been among the best chance-preventing teams in England, allowing the fourth-fewest xG and the eighth-fewest shots on target. Additionally, the Cherries rank in the top three in interceptions and recoveries, and they’re fourth in both overall high turnovers and high turnovers ending in a shot. Bournemouth’s defending against set pieces has been problematic, and it has lost a slight majority of both its ground and aerial duels, but its main culprit is shot-stopper Ðorðe Petrović, who has saved just 48.0% of his opportunities and ranks second-to-last in goals prevented.
The Black Cats have had a similar story, as they probably deserve to be higher in the table than 17th. Brian Brobbey (three goals), Enzo Le Fée, Nilson Angulo, and Wilson Isidor have each found the back of the net, with Brobbey recording a hat trick in the thriller against Manchester City. As a result, Sunderland currently ranks sixth in xG, 12th in shots, and ninth in shots on target, and it will likely welcome Brobbey back after a one-match absence with a hamstring injury suffered while on duty with the Netherlands. The Black Cats haven’t been quite as tight defensively as the Cherries, as they’ve given up the seventh-most xG, but those chances have come from the seventh-fewest shots and the second-fewest shots on target. Sunderland has also won its ground duels at the fourth-highest clip and allowed fewer touches in the box than Bournemouth. But the Black Cats, too, have a problem between the sticks; Robin Roefs, who was one of the Premier League’s top shot-stoppers last season, ranks dead last in both goals prevented (minus-3.8) and save percentage (40%).
Although Sunderland has had the more difficult schedule and doesn’t have an albatross like the Cherries’ loss to the Blues, Bournemouth is the slightly better team overall. The Cherries’ defensive intensity is a more standout quality than anything the Black Cats have, especially if Brobbey isn’t quite fit enough to play the full 90 minutes, and they have more attacking depth. Plus, home-field advantage should matter here, as Sunderland picked up 12 fewer points on the road and Bournemouth five more at home in 2025/26. Provided that Petrović and Roefs show some signs of regression towards the exceptional form that they were in last season, I expect the home side to win a low-scoring one.
