Two struggling SEC squads are hoping to pick up a much-needed victory this weekend. Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) is in the midst of a rebuild, hampered in large part by a stagnant offense. It’s a similar story for Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3), a program that’s handing the reigns to highly touted freshman quarterback Jared Curtis. Who will pick up their first conference win of the season in Nashville?
The Commodores are listed as six-point favorites over the Razorbacks, with the total set at O/U 49.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt Week 7 matchup.
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
It’s no secret that the Razorbacks have had difficulty moving the ball. It’s a sharp contrast from 2025, when the team had issues stopping their opponents. Arkansas is averaging 327.2 yards per game on offense, second-fewest in the SEC. Quarterback KJ Jackson has struggled. Over six games this season, he’s thrown for 1,193 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. To be fair, the junior has had to do most of the heavy lifting for this roster. Arkansas is averaging a meager 3.1 yards per carry. Only Oklahoma (2.89 YPC) has been worse among all 16 SEC squads. The Hogs have scored 17 points or fewer in all four of their games against Power Four opponents.
This game will likely be won in the trenches. Vanderbilt has taken a step back on defense, especially on the ground. Teams are gaining 4.14 yards per carry against the Commodores, fourth-worst in the conference. However, as previously mentioned, pounding the rock has proven difficult for Arkansas. It’s not as if things have been much better through the air. Vandy is allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt to opponents, all while giving up 12 passing touchdowns. Granted, those numbers have taken a major hit following games against #1 Georgia and #9 Ole Miss.
On the other side of the ball, this is Curtis’ best opportunity yet to pick up his first SEC win. Last Saturday’s two-interception showing vs. Ole Miss was disappointing to say the least. Through five games this season (four starts), the freshman has thrown for 968 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions. It’s worth noting that he’s also chipped in with 131 yards and two scores on the ground. This isn’t a one-man show; Clark Lea will need some other names to help out his inexperienced passer. That hasn’t come to fruition for most of this season. Vanderbilt is averaging just 116.67 rushing yards per game, third-fewest in the SEC.
Arkansas’ defense is slightly improved in 2026, but that really isn’t saying much. This group was laughably bad last year; the only place for them to go was up. The Razorbacks are still giving up the conference’s second-most yards per pass attempt (8.0) and second-most yards per rush attempt (4.42). Still, it’s worth noting the team’s extreme level of competition this season. Ranked matchups against Georgia, Utah and Tennessee have made things extra difficult for the Hogs. In that regard, today’s matchup presents a far more winnable game. Curtis has shown a knack for giving away the football; perhaps this Arkansas defense can snag an interception or two tonight.
Best Bet: Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt under 48.5 points (-110)
Neither of these two defenses inspires much confidence. However, games against the SEC’s best may have skewed some numbers in recent weeks. Neither Jackson or Curtis has been lighting it up; a sloppy mistake or two from both quarterbacks wouldn’t come as a shock tonight. 50+ points between two of the conference’s three lowest scoring teams? This line feels a bit too high.
