In 2025/26, Leeds United was just happy to survive the Premier League after two seasons away from the top flight. This season, the Whites could be pushing for a European place, their first in nearly a quarter-century.
Sunday’s 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) home match against Manchester United would count as a giant-slaying in most seasons, but given how each team has performed so far this season, it’s an opportunity for Leeds United to pick up all three points.
The Whites are +140 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Roses rivalry, with the Red Devils at +180. There are +260 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this clash and provide my favorite bet.
Leeds vs. Manchester United Best Bet:
- Leeds United Moneyline (+140): Sometimes, mojo just matters, and right now, the vibes surrounding Manchester United are bad. The Red Devils are dealing with more injuries right now, and they aren’t well-suited to take advantage of Leeds’ few defensive weaknesses. I think it’ll be low-scoring, as I’m not sold by the Whites’ attack, but they’ll be able to press their way into a goal or two.
Leeds vs. Manchester United prediction, pick
Leeds United was undefeated through the first international break, picking up a pair of wins (over Nottingham Forest and Newcastle) and three draws, including difficult fixtures against Brighton and Brentford, which also sit near the top of the table. Although the Whites lost 2-1 to Arsenal in Matchweek 6, they led after 60 minutes and pushed the title-holders to the end, and they still sit seventh in the table. They’re three points and six places ahead of Manchester United, which started the season with a shocking 2-0 loss to newly-promoted Hull City, dropped the Manchester Derby in controversial fashion, and conceded a late equalizer against 10-man Tottenham Hotspur. The Red Devils were also embarrassed by Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Leeds has had a pretty well-balanced side this season, as while no player has scored more than twice, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Jayden Bogle have both scored twice and three other players have found the back of the net once. All five of the Whites’ assists have come from different players. All in all, Leeds has scored eight goals, tied for the 10th-most in the Premier League, and produced the seventh-fewest xG worth of chances. While it hasn’t attempted a ton of shots, its looks have been high-quality; it ranks seventh in expected goals per shot, thanks to its league-best play from set pieces. The Whites have paired their subpar attack with an elite defense, conceding five goals (the fewest of any team) and chances worth the 10th-fewest xG. They also rank highly in interceptions and clearances, winning a majority of both their ground and aerial duels, and they’ve produced the seventh-most high turnovers as a result of their aggressive pressing scheme. In between the sticks, James Trafford ranks eighth in shots prevented and leads England’s top flight in save percentage. Leeds still allows a few too many shots overall, and it hasn’t defended set pieces very well, but the Whites’ defensive investments in Trafford and Tarik Muharemović have paid off already.
While Leeds United has been pretty egalitarian in its approach, Manchester United has had a top-heavy attack. Bruno Fernandes scored all three of his goals in the thrashing of Ipswich Town, and Bryan Mbeumo has three as well. Otherwise, only Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Šeško have one each. The Red Devils’ attack has been a little bit better than Leeds’ overall, as they have produced the fifth-most xG while attempting the most shots and second-most shots on target, and they’ve been among the league’s best and most aggressive passing teams, but it hasn’t fully clicked. Defensively, Manchester United ranks 10th in goals conceded and seventh in xG allowed, but the shots that it’s given up have been rather high-quality, and it’s won ground and aerial duels at a lower rate than the Whites have. The Red Devils have been good at stepping into passing lanes, ranking third in interceptions, but they haven’t forced many high turnovers or done a very good job playing the offsides trap. Senne Lammens ranks ahead of Trafford by goals prevented, but he has a significantly lower save percentage.
On paper, Manchester United should win, but Michael Carrick’s men just haven’t looked great this season, and his seat might be the hottest of any manager’s. The Red Devils are dealing with more injuries, as Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo are doubtful and there’s no guarantee that Šeško, Noussair Mazraoui, or Lisandro Martínez will be available either. Manchester United hasn’t been a great finishing side, so it might struggle if Leeds doesn’t give it high-quality shots, and its deliberate attacking style could prove challenging against the Whites’ press. I don’t think there will be tons of goals (the EFL Cup match against Chelsea aside, that’s not Leeds’ style), but I’ll take the home side to pull through in the end.
