It’s been a frustrating season for Fulham, to say the least. Through six league games, they have no wins and are dead last in the table. They need to find some answers soon. Recently promoted Hull City have found answers, picking up two wins and three draws from six matches to build a comfortable position. Will Fulham find their form in this match, or will Hull put them deeper in the hole?
Fulham are -140 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a +270 draw. Hull City’s moneyline is set at +215.
Fulham vs. Hull City Prediction, Pick
No team ever wants to chalk up their struggles to bad luck, but the Cottagers have a fair case. They’ve lost four of their games this season by exactly one goal, and they’ve picked up solid draws against Manchester United and Liverpool. Fulham managed to build confidence in the EFL Cup, winning 3-0 over Wimbledon in the first round before pulling an upset over Aston Villa in their last tie. There’s plenty of reason to think their best football is ahead of them, but it’s hard to ignore the hole they’ve dug early in the season.
One of Fulham’s big problems is a high possession share with few goals to show for it. They’ve played a lot of east-west ball when they need to go more north-south; despite being fourth in total completed passes per game, Fulham are 11th in crosses and accurate long balls per match. When they go forward, they’ve been convincing, generating the eighth-most xG on the season. It seems mentality is more the issue than talent, and that can be fixed with time and focus rather than money, which is good news for the club.
The defense might need some money to fix. They’ve conceded the sixth-most xG on the season, coming in low on total tackles, clearances, and final-third recoveries. Calvin Bassey, Joachim Andersen and David Affengruber aren’t the kinds of center-backs who can cover for Antonee Robinson and Ryan Sessegnon when they go ranging upfield. Shea Charles has done yeoman’s work as a defensive midfielder, and looks more like a part of the solution than the problem, but this defensive group has a long way to go.
Hull City came out firing on Matchday One, beating Manchester United, and have continued to grind out big results. In addition to upsetting Villa, Chelsea, and Everton, they picked up a crucial 1-0 win over fellow promotees Coventry. When you’re in the first year after a promotion, survival is the goal, and every point matters. These early season results mean everything to Hull.
They’ve gotten it done by doing just a little bit of everything. Hull have the lowest possession mark in the league, playing on the back foot for more than two-thirds of a match on average. Their five-man back line has done an excellent job of keeping things in front of them and in check for goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis, who is off to an exceptional start to his Premier League career. With just enough from the attack, anchored by Oli McBurnie, they’ve managed to squeak by some exceptional teams.
Fulham are big favorites given the talent gap, but results are what matter. Until we see the Cottagers pick up wins, I won’t count on it. These teams will split the points, leaving Hull quite pleased and Fulham decidedly less so.
