A pivotal matchup headlines Week 7’s ACC slate. Virginia (4-2. 2-1) is a dark horse to reach the conference championship game, carried by an underrated defense. That group will be put to the test against #24 SMU (4-1, 2-1), one of the nation’s highest powered offenses. In this clash between contrasting styles, which squad will come out on top this afternoon?
The Mustangs are listed as 9.5-point favorites over the Cavaliers, with the total set at O/U 51.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Virginia vs. SMU Week 7 matchup.
Virginia vs. SMU prediction, preview
The Cavaliers aren’t the most explosive offense; their 5.52 yards per play ranks as fourth-worst in the ACC. Still, head coach Tony Elliott has used this deliberate offense to his advantage. Virginia is averaging 31:26 minutes of possession per game, seventh-best in the conference. It helps that he has a quarterback that avoids sloppy mistakes in Beau Pribula. The senior has thrown for 1,074 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception through six games. He’s supported by running back Jekail Middlebrook, who has gained 337 yards on 67 carries (5.0 YPA). Still, offensive output varies from game to game. Look no further than UVA’s seven-point showing in Week 5 against Florida State.
Rhett Lashlee’s offense gets most of the attention, and for good reason. However, his defense isn’t too shabby either. SMU is allowing just 312.0 yards per game to opponents, sixth-best in the ACC. Where this group excels is in the secondary, giving up a minuscule 5.8 yards per pass attempt. However, they are a middling unit when it comes to stopping the run. Opponents are gaining 4.24 yards per rush attempt against the Mustangs. Southern Methodist can certainly generate pressure, racking up 17.0 sacks in just five games played. There’s a good chance that continues on Saturday against lackluster Cavaliers pass protection. Virginia’s offensive line has surrendered a conference-worst 20.0 sacks this season.
On the other side of the ball, Kevin Jennings remains one of college football’s best quarterbacks. Through five games, the senior has thrown for 1,588 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. There’s no shortage of weapons in Dallas, headlined by wide receivers Yamir Knight, Jalen Cooper and Yannick Smith. All three players have put up at least 200 receiving yards. On the ground, Kendrick Raphael has churned out 418 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He’s gaining nearly 100 yards per game from scrimmage this season. Still, the Mustangs prefer dismantling opponents through the air. SMU is averaging a conference-best 341.0 passing yards per game.
As previously mentioned, the Cavaliers have done a stellar job on defense this season. The team is giving up 313.7 yards per game, seventh-best in the ACC. Much like SMU, this group has done a solid job in the secondary; opposing passers are averaging just 161.8 yards per game against the Hoos. With that being said, last week’s game vs. Syracuse was a tad concerning. Third-string quarterback Malachi Nelson led a 430-yard day for SU’s offense, and Virginia barely escaped with a three-point win at home. A much better showing is necessary to keep Jennings and the Mustangs in check.
Best Bet: SMU -9.5 (-110)
SMU has been a tad susceptible to the run, but it might not matter. Virginia will need to move the ball quicker than usual if it wants to keep pace with Jennings and company. That means more pass attempts and more opportunity for the normally risk-averse Pribula to get into trouble. An uninspiring UVA offensive line doesn’t inspire much confidence against this Mustangs pass rush. On the road, it’s difficult to put much faith in the Cavaliers this afternoon. .
