We’re at about the midway point of the college football regular season, and Week 7 brings us one of the top slates of the year. Tons of ranked matchups and pivotal conference games are on the board this weekend. Let’s breakdown some of my best bets for CFB Week 7.
I’m publishing picks for five games on Wednesday, but be sure to check back throughout the week for additions and updates.
Washington at Purdue (Friday 8pm ET)
Washington’s season is starting to slip away. While the Huskies started 3-0, they were ugly wins over far inferior competition at home, going 0-3 ATS in those matchups. Since then, Washington is winless against Power 4 schools — a four-point road loss at USC was its only cover, and it lost the other two games as a home favorite to Minnesota and Iowa.
The Huskies sit 1-5 ATS, failing to cover by 13 points per game. Things got worse last Friday night hosting Iowa. The Hawkeyes beat them down from start to finish, and starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. left with a rib injury and did not return. He’s one of several Huskies listed as questionable for Friday night at Purdue, but the expectation is that he will not play. If ruled out, Williams joins a lengthy list of Husky skill position players already ruled out, on top of the many that are questionable.
Stanford transfer Elijah Brown replaced Williams at QB against Iowa and put up good numbers — completing over 70% of his passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns. However, the game script forced Washington to go pass heavy and Iowa was already running away with the game. Purdue now has tape on Brown, who only made four starts during his career at Stanford.
Meanwhile, is Purdue actually pretty good? It predictably crushed Indiana State in the opener, and then lost three in a row. But the losses have aged pretty well. The Boilermakers go beatdown by Notre Dame, but there’s no shame in that. They were well out of their weight class against the now No. 2 team in the country.
Purdue’s other two losses came in a dramatic overtime games that came down to the wire against Wake Forest and putting up 38 points on the road at UCLA. Well, both of those teams rank in the top-25, with UCLA undefeated and Wake’s only loss coming to Miami.
Since taking those losses, the Boilermakers have stacked consecutive wins as the underdog over Illinois and Minnesota — the same Minnesota team that went on the road to Washington and won as a double digit underdog. Purdue won that game at home last week in dominant fashion by a final score of 41-13.
Washington’s offense has left a lot to be desired, while Purdue has given up a total of 30 points over its last two Big Ten games. Meanwhile, Ryan Browne is playing solid and mistake free football for the Boilermakers. The ground game is also coming together for Purdue, with RB Fame Ijeboi ripping off a 31-195-3 rushing line against a physical Minnesota defense. The Huskies are fresh off allowing Iowa RB Kamari Moulton to go off for 26-208-2 last Friday.
Give me Purdue to continue rolling at home in what should be a great Friday night atmosphere for a program that’s gaining momentum and exceeding expectations.
CFB Best Bet: Purdue -3.5 (-108)
Ohio State at Indiana (Saturday – 12pm ET)
A week after getting Georgia and Alabama, we get another battle of national contenders with Ohio State going to Indiana. It’s a revenge spot for the Buckeyes, after coming up just short in the Big Ten title game against the Hoosiers back in December. While Curt Cignetti carries the coaching advantage in the matchup, Ryan Day takes these things personally. He’ll have his squad ready for this one, many of the players returning from last year and looking to avenge the loss as well.
Indiana is 6-0 on the season, now riding an insane 22-game winning streak. That said, this team is a clear cut below the roster that won the National Championship last season. Cignetti is a coach that likes to run up scores and cover, and even so, the Hoosiers are just 1-5 ATS this season, with the cover coming against a Rutgers team that lost as a 29-point favorite in Week 1.
Indiana has faced two quality opponents and easily could’ve lost to either of them. Northwestern came into Bloomington an underdog of 20-plus points for a Friday night game and lost by just six points. Then last week, Indiana trailed 17-6 in the fourth quarter at Nebraska. Two explosive pass plays to Nick Marsh wound up just pulling out the 20-17 victory to a seemingly cursed program that’s now lost 31 straight games to ranked opponents.
The Hoosiers are very good, but no longer bulletproof. Northwestern and Nebraska didn’t have quite enough firepower to seal the deal, but Ohio State absolutely does. The Buckeyes are buttoned up on the defensive side of the ball. If they can build a lead like the Cornhuskers did, the defense won’t allow those big plays for another Indiana comeback. Josh Hoover has fixed his turnover problem under Cignetti, and is yet to throw an interception after tossing 33 in three years at TCU. When he’s sped up against the Ohio State defense, we’ll see if he reverts back to being sloppy with the ball.
I do expect explosive plays from the Buckeyes on the offensive side of the ball. The X-factor is obviously Jeremiah Smith, who is running away in the Heisman odds. He’s been unstoppable so far, approaching 1,000 yards with 11 touchdowns. Indiana will have something schemed up for him, but a couple monster plays seem inevitable at this point. In the two ranked games Ohio State has played, both on the road, Smith finished with stat lines of 8-164-1 at Texas and 11-206-2 at Iowa. In a 13-10 defensive battle against IU in the conference championship, Smith still ripped off eight grabs for 144 yards.
The Hoosiers have been flirting with a loss, and this just feels like the spot they’re destined to take it. Ohio State will be highly motivated, has the more talented roster, and has played in tough road environments. The heartbreaking loss at Texas after dominating for three quarters should be a strength for the Buckeyes moving forward to keep their foot on the gas.
I laid a juiced -3 with Ohio State, but if that line isn’t available when you’re placing the bet, you can still split it up. Just play half the bet on -3.5 and half on the ALT -2.5 which are both always available on DraftKings.
CFB Best Bet: Ohio State -3 (-122) – 1.5-units
Penn State at Michigan (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
I gave Penn State a shot on Saturday night in the “White Out” game against USC. Partially because of how poor USC has been traveling east, and partially blind faith that Penn State would show up when it had to save its season. It did not. Since losing to Oregon in last year’s “White Out” the Nittany Lions are 3-9 in Big Ten play. The three wins all came at the end of last season when favored by a touchdown or more.
Matt Campbell is 0-3 in Big Ten conference play, going 0-3 ATS and failing to cover by 14.7 points per game. Not great. That said, Michigan has not been great either. The Wolverines could easily be sitting 2-3 if justice were served back on that Week 1 Hail Mary against Western Michigan. So who can we trust here?
I say we trust Michigan.
The Wolverines are off a couple of ugly losses. Frankly, they dominated Iowa at home a few weeks ago, but the Hawkeyes got some magic and won on a walk off touchdown. That wasn’t the case the following week at Minnesota, when Bryce Underwood looked awful in another loss.
That said, Michigan caught the bye week at the right time. Kyle Whittingham is a fantastic coach, and will have adjustments in place. One of the adjustments discussed was making a QB change, which ultimately was not the case. But Underwood has to play well in this game. If he doesn’t, Tommy Carr will replace him. I like that Underwood will be playing for his job here, and with two weeks to prep for a very underwhelming Penn State defense.
Much like Michigan’s win at home over Oklahoma, I expect the Wolverines to play to their strength — running the ball. What happened in Penn State’s most embarrassing loss of the season? It gave up over 400 rushing yards to a very physical Northwestern team. Michigan should be able to find a lot of success on the ground in this spot.
I have no concerns on the defensive side for Michigan. This is a strong unit, and will be the toughest defense that Penn State has seen this season, in a hostile road environment. I’ll back the Wolverines two different ways in this one. I laid the points inside of a touchdown, and also played Halftime/Fulltime. That means leading at halftime and winning the game. I like Michigan’s physicality to pay off early on the ground, and the defense to hold up strong.
CFB Best Bet: Michigan -6.5 (-115)
CFB Best Bet: Michigan Halftime/Fulltime (-120)
Kentucky at Oklahoma (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
These Kentucky Wildcats are riding high. Back-to-back weeks now Kentucky has won in overtime on a walk off two-point conversion by the same exact score — 35-34. It took a big comeback on the road at South Carolina two weeks ago, and then the Wildcats knocked off a top-10 team in LSU at home.
Kentucky is now 5-1, with three straight SEC wins as the underdog. The lone loss came to Alabama in a game the Wildcats led at home at halftime. The other win was a beatdown of Texas A&M at Kyle Field. Congrats to Kentucky win total backers — it was the most-bet win total over in the preseason at DraftKings, and over bettors cashed O4.5 in early October.
Normally, I wouldn’t look to back a team riding this kind of wave, and coming off a big overtime win with a field storm at home. However, Oklahoma is coming off an even bigger win — a field goal at the buzzer to knock over No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry. That kind of creates a wash when it comes to the spot here, but if you made me pick, I’d say it’s more of a letdown for OU.
Credit John Mateer for taking care of the ball against a good Texas defense, but he still threw the ball for just 155 yards. Oklahoma generated 14 of its 27 points on defense and special teams, blocking a punt for a touchdown and getting a pick six off Arch Manning. Not to mention the eventual game winning kick came off a takeaway off Manning.
Kentucky’s defense won’t exactly give the Sooners the same type of test that they’ve seen in Michigan, Georgia and Texas. However, Will Stein is a terrific coach that can scheme up a good offensive game plan here. This will be strength on strength when Kentucky’s offense faces the Oklahoma defense, and weakness on weakness when the OU offense matches up with Kentucky’s defense.
I just can’t trust the Sooners to win with margin with this offense. I’m not calling for the Wildcats to win a fourth consecutive SEC game as the underdog, but I am calling for them to keep this one tight.
CFB Best Bet: Kentucky +7 (-112)
Wisconsin at UCLA (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
UCLA was priced as an underdog for the first time this season on Saturday at Oregon. But nothing seems to faze this Bruins squad, and Bob Chesney has them ready to go. UCLA got the outright win over the Ducks as the double digit dog, improving to 5-0 on the season. The Bruins are also a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning by 21.2 points per game and covering by an even more impressive 16.8 PPG.
Wisconsin has been no slouch, sitting 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. The only loss came in the opener to Notre Dame, and the Badgers have won both their Big Ten games — a road comeback at Penn State and a demolition of Michigan State. Now they are off the bye and heading west.
That said, I fully trust Chesney and his program. The Bruins did suffer a loss in Eugene in different fashion, though — Nico Iamaleava went down and is out for the season. The backup QB is a relative unknown in Ty Dieffenbach, but he did lead a late touchdown drive that propelled UCLA to the win.
Chesney and his staff have all week to prep their new QB for the task, and I believe they will be ready. UCLA has good weapons and an elite rushing attack — ranking 4th nationally with 253.2 rushing yards per game. I backed UCLA the first few games of the season before getting off the train. I’m back on this week.
This team is crushing expectations, now just +180 to make the College Football Playoff and +1000 to win the Big Ten after being priced at an insane 170-1 over the summer. I’ll ride with the Bruins at a discount until they let me down.
CFB Best Bet: UCLA -2.5 (-115)
