Phoenix is a flat one-mile oval, and Sunday’s Freeway Insurance 500 is the seventh of 10 Chase races. The spring race here had four cautions for tire failures and three multi-car wrecks on restarts. Fourteen different drivers have won through 32 points races this season. The dash in the desert is wide open.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the Freeway Insurance 500
Race Winner — Christopher Bell +450
Bell has finished in the top seven at three of the four flat tracks this year. He was seventh at Richmond, fourth at New Hampshire and second at Iowa, where he started 22nd, ran fifth-best in average running position (5.2) and lost to Ty Gibbs by 0.253 seconds. Gateway was the exception, a 19th-place finish with a 12.1 average running position. He also comes in off a second-place finish at Charlotte, where he led 93 laps and lost to Chase Briscoe by 0.029 seconds. Runner-ups have been his thing this year.
Phoenix is where his speed stands out most. In March he started 12th and finished — take a guess — second to Ryan Blaney by 0.399 seconds. He won stage 2 and had the best average running position (2.60) and the best lap speed in the race by a wide margin. It was the third time in the last five Phoenix races that he had the best average running position, and he won the spring race in both 2024 and 2025. Only Ryan Blaney (+370) is priced ahead of him.
Race Winner — Joey Logano +600
Logano has been one of the best flat-track drivers of 2026, and the results back it up. He won at North Wilkesboro with the best average running position (2.12) and the best lap speed in the race, and he won at Richmond from the 10th starting spot with a 3.4 average running position. He also finished third at Martinsville and third at Gateway, where he started first and averaged a 3.0 running position. New Hampshire and Iowa were misses (top-15 finishes), but the No. 22 Team Penske Ford can’t dominate every race.
Phoenix has produced both his best and worst results of the last three years. He won the 2024 championship race with the second-best average running position (3.16) and the fastest lap speed in the field, and he finished fourth in the fall of 2025. In March he started first and had the second-best average running position (2.73) and the second-best lap speed (87th percentile), but he was caught in a lap 217 restart crash and finished 31st. The speed was there and the finish was not, which is how a +600 price appears.
