In Game 1 of the ALCS, the Rays came out splashing and took a 2-0 lead in the first inning. Drew Rasmussen was brilliant for Tampa Bay through five innings, but he allowed a solo home run in each of the next two innings to tie the game. In the eighth, Cleveland went ahead on a two-run single by Nathaniel Lowe but Cedric Mullins immediately responded with a solo shot in the bottom of the inning to make things interesting. Cleveland thought that was cute and countered with three runs in the ninth to put the game away. With the Guardians snatching home field advantage, can Tampa Bay respond on Tuesday?
Parker Messick gets the nod for Cleveland while Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is a 1.5-run home favorite with -138 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Cleveland is a +115 underdog, with the game total set at O/U seven runs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st] (CLE @ TB)
Captain’s Picks
Parker Messick ($18,600 CP) – The lefty Messick had himself quite the regular season, posting a 3.07 FIP with a 19.3 K-BB% in 186.1 innings. The average exit velocity allowed was 87.6 mph with a 5% barrel rate. He was worse on the road, though, as the FIP was 1.03 higher while the K-BB% was 3.5% lower. That said, in two regular season starts against Tampa Bay this season, Messick went 13.1 innings in two starts while striking out 15, walking only two and allowing two earned runs on nine hits. Against left-handed pitching this season, Tampa Bay was dead-last in ISO, 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+.
UTIL Plays
Jose Ramirez ($9,000) – Ramirez had a rough regular season, slashing only .235/.320/.368 with 12 home runs and a .133 ISO in 544 plate appearances. He did steal 37 bases while the plate discipline remained excellent. That said, Ramirez closed out the White Sox series how we expected the All-Star to perform, going 5-for-12 with a double, triple, two home runs, seven RBI, two walks and a stolen base in three contests. That could’ve been a blip on the radar, but I’m willing to side with his extensive history of production that he’s feeling good and is locked in. Freddy Peralta allowed 17 home runs to lefties this season while the FIP was 4.41 with a 13.2 K-BB%.
Steven Kwan ($6,400) – Kwan bats leadoff and isn’t much of a threat to bash the ball over the fence. He’s more like a pest, getting on base and rarely striking out. During the regular season, the walk rate was 13.3%, strikeout rate was only 9.7% and he scored 80 runs. Kwan has produced fantasy goodies in 23 straight games, with six of those in double-digits and a high of 28 FPTS.
Jonny DeLuca ($6,000) – DeLuca was the short side of a platoon during the regular season, receiving 370 plate appearances. He slashed .266/.300/.429 with a 21.1% strikeout rate and .163 ISO. He finished with 11 home runs, 44 runs, 50 RBI and 17 stolen bases. The average exit velocity was only 85.8 mph with a 3.6% barrel rate, but the bat speed was 73.4 mph. Over the last nine games, DeLuca produced at least 5 FPTS in eight with three in double digits and two over 20 FPTS.
Fades
Freddy Peralta ($11,000) – Peralta made his debut with Tampa Bay in mid-August after being acquired via trade. The first two starts weren’t great, putting up 7.5 and 12.4 FPTS. He allowed five earned runs in the second start. Since then, though, he was lights out, allowing only four earned runs in seven starts with no game with more than one earned run. He was extremely lucky, though, as the BABIP was only .187 with a 94% strand rate. The FIP of 2.78 was much higher than the 0.79 ERA while the xFIP was 4.44. I’m giving some of the credit to the Tampa Bay staff, as they made mechanical tweaks and pitch mix changes. That said, there’s plenty of tape and data now with nine starts for Cleveland to break down. In addition, at some point, the luck is going to change.
