The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The PGA TOUR added this event to the schedule in 2022 (its second event in Mexico) and this year moved the tournament (its third year on the PGA) to a late February time slot. Despite the move to before the year’s first major, the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta won’t be star-studded. Only four of the world’s top 50 players are in attendance, with last year’s champion Tony Finau leading the way. Finau is also joined by Nicolai Hojgaard, Emiliano Grillo and Ryan Fox who also all sit inside the OWGR top 50.
This event has been won by top players the last couple of seasons (Rahm in 2022 and Finau in 2023) but certainly, we have seen players longer in the betting odds rise up and challenge in this weaker field setting as well. Despite the lack of star power, the Mexico Open is still a full 144-man field, and the cut will take place on its usual spot this Friday, with the top-65 players and ties making the weekend.
For DFS, the lack of top-end options will create interesting game theory dynamics for larger field GPPs with lots of the bigger names like to have huge amounts of ownership.
The Course
Vidanta Vallarta (designer: Greg Norman)
7,456 yards, par-71; Greens: Paspalum
The course this week is the same one the players have tackled the last two years, in the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta. The expansive Par 71 has four par 5s and wider fairways but also features plenty of water and bunkering in play to test players.
Vidanta is a true resort course (and plays as a Par 73 with six par 5s for the amateurs) but does have a very tropical/wild setting to it. To get to the venue, players have to travel across a huge river on a suspension bridge, so logistics mean there is some travel involved just to make it to your tee time on time. The venue is situated around six man-made mini-lakes, and there are over 100 bunkers in play. From a design standpoint, Vidanta in many ways plays as a kind of beefed-up version of Norman’s other Mexican course, El Camaleón, which hosts the Mayakoba Classic every season. However, it’s more open in nature and has larger greens which also allows it to compare well to other off-shore, coastal venues like Coco Beach in Puerto Rico or the Renaissance Club in Scotland.
The venue yielded a winning score of 17-under par in 2022, and there was somewhat of an advantage for longer hitters that shone through on the leaderboard where several solid drivers — Rahm included — took center stage. Driving distance at this venue the last two years was well above the PGA’s seasonal average, and the open layout proved a fruitful playground for those ball-strikers with power, who sometimes struggle around more technical venues and green structures.
As a note, around the green play tends to be the least important factor of all the main skill categories at Vidanta, and good weather for 2024 means we’ll likely see higher GIR %’s once again — and less emphasis on ATG skill. The Paspalum greens this week, a common grass in tropical climates, also tend to play slower and are more receptive to approaches. The slower greens also tend to help out poor putters and in the last two seasons, we have seen players who typically struggle with putting on traditional PGA setups spike with that club.
Looking to big hitters this week and players trending well off the tee is a good way to start research. In 2022, all but one of the top 10 finishers at this event gained 1.5 strokes or more off the tee for the week and wider fairways means accuracy isn’t super important. While both of Norman’s PGA TOUR venues (El Camaleón and TPC San Antonio) could be used as corollaries for the week, I’d also look at past results from venues like TPC Twin Cities (3M Open), The Renaissance Club (Scottish Open) and Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open) to help gauge who may benefit from this less traditional setup.
2024 Weather Outlook: As mentioned above, the weather this week looks extremely mild. Highs will be in the 80-85 F range but the wind, which can be a factor at an open course like Vidanta, looks like it will be nearly non-existent. For DFS, I’d expect the A.M. wave to still have an advantage as the mornings look like they will be windless, while the afternoons will have to deal with firmer greens and winds in the 5-7 mph range. Don’t expect a huge gap in scoring between waves but if the wind picks up on Thursday or Friday afternoon we could see one develop. For showdown purposes, stacking early-morning players looks like a viable way to (potentially) gain a small edge.
Past Winners and Stats
2023 — Tony Finau -24 (over Jon Rahm -21)
SG: OTT — 5.2
SG: APP — 6.1
SG: TTG — 14.8
SG: ATG — 3.5
SG: PUTT — 4.9
- Rahm gained most of his strokes off the tee in 2022, which was a huge theme for the top finishers at this event last season;
- Finau also gained massively off the tee but also hammered his approaches — hence the 24-under par winning score
- All of the golfers in the top 10 at Vidanta in 2023 gained strokes off the tee and nine of the 10 gained over 1.5 strokes OTT; Last year, 12 of the top 14 finishers gained over 1.0 strokes OTT
- With the wider fairways distance certainly seems to play better than accuracy and it’s worth noting that notoriously inaccurate drivers like Eric Cole and Akshay Bhatia both gained over a 1.0 strokes OTT last year
- Rahm wasn’t great in any other area but his putter certainly showed up for him and given the setup, a solid putting week will be necessary for anyone thinking of hanging with the leaders on this easier course;
- The slower green speeds also mean regularly poor putters will likely have a better chance of spiking with that club than usual — last season saw Tony Finau, Akshay Bhatia and Emiliano Grillo (who often struggle with the flatstick on regular venues) all gain over 4.0 strokes putting
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Jake Knapp +3500 and $8,700
Comparables:
Austin Eckroat +5000 and $8,000
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Thomas Detry ($10,100; T28-T4): We’ve seen Detry get in contention numerous times this season. He finished in the top five at the shortened Pebble Beach event and was near the lead after three rounds at the Farmers before falling off. His price makes him risky but he’s proven to be a player capable of spiking for big weeks in weaker field events.
2. Mark Hubbard ($9,000; T15-T6): Hubbard ranks first in strokes gained total stats over the last 6 events. He’s been up and down with his ball striking but gained 8.4 strokes on approach at Torrey Pines (T20) back in January.
3. Emiliano Grillo ($11,100; T44-T22): Grillo is 5/5 in terms of made cuts on the season and has continued to show good confidence with his putter, gaining over 2.0 strokes with his flat-stick in three of his five 2024 starts.
4. Doug Ghim ($8,800; T13-T12): Ghim has finished in the top 15 in each of his last two starts (Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale). His ball-striking remains solid and as long as his putter continues not to bleed strokes he’ll be a weekly top 20 contender.
5. Maverick McNealy ($8,100; T6-T37): McNealy is still working his way back from an injury layoff but comes in on a 3-event made-cut streak. He finished T6 in Phoenix and gained 2.6 strokes on approach there. Given his putting prowess, if his ball-striking continues to progress it’s within the realm of possibility he contends this week.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Vegas a solid value
The prevailing wisdom this week will undoubtedly be to start cash game lineups with Tony Finau ($12,000) who figures to be the most-owned payer in the field by a wide margin. You could bypass Finau in GPPs (see below) but starting lineups with Finau in 50/50’s and headsup games means you’ll need solid value plays to pair alongside. Jhonattan Vegas ($7,600) remains a streaky player but in this kind of field, he looks underpriced considering he’s coming off a solid T22 finish in Phoenix. The Columbian gained 7.2 strokes ball-striking at the WM Phoenix Open and has done extremely well on paspalum greens throughout his career. Maverick McNealy ($8,100), Austin Eckroat ($8,000) and Carson Young ($7,400) all look like decent players to target, as well, if you’re employing a Finau-led lineup this week.
Tournaments: Pendrith worth a look
If we’re going balanced and playing the game theory-build of avoiding Finau then two players I like going heavier on are Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,700 – see below) and Canadian Taylor Pendrith ($9,600). Pendrith has had success at similar venues to Finau (Detroit Golf Club, Torrey Pines) and has flashed well with his scoring clubs to start the year, gaining 5.1 strokes putting at the Sony Open — another golf course that’s outside the US mainland and features slower-than-normal greens. Below him, I also like the upside of Justin Suh ($8,300) and Alejandro Tosti ($7,800) this week. Tosti tore up the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 and finished T10 at this venue last year, while Suh played well in Mexico in the fall. Other names to consider for this format include Robert MacIntyre ($7,000 – see below), Parker Coody ($6,500) and Matti Schmid ($6,200).
MY PICK: Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,700)
Here’s what we’ve seen from Nicolai Hojgaard over the past six months:
- Five top five finishes, the most recent of which came against a legitimate PGA field at one of the toughest venues on TOUR in Torrey Pines;
- A late fall win against an elite European Tour field;
- A Ryder Cup qualification spot that was earned based on spectacular play in late summer and early fall.
In short, there is not much reason to doubt that we are witnessing the rise of one of the elite young talents in the game when we watch Hojgaard and, to our benefit, he’s someone still looking to prove himself against PGA fields with a win.
While his performance dipped the last couple of weeks on more classic PGA setups in Phoenix and Riviera (where course experience often provides a huge advantage) the venue this week should tip the scales back in Hojgaard’s favor. Outside of his near miss at the Farmers, his best PGA finishes to date include a T6 at the Scottish Open and a T2 at the Corales Punta Cana event, two offshore tournaments that feature slower-than-normal greens and correlate well with this week’s test.
While the more expensive Tony Finau ($12,000) remains the favorite for betting on the DraftKings Sportsbook, it’s Hojgaard who has the better recent form and seems like a far better value at +1600 or better. Additionally, while Hojgaard will certainly have higher ownership attached to him in bigger field GPPs, starting lineups with him (over Finau) will give you a more unique build and allow you to capitalize on the leverage that this sort of field creates with such condensed ownership on the event favorite.
MY SLEEPER: Robert MacIntyre ($7,000)
This field is obviously a lot weaker than the ones we’ve seen of late and, for that reason, looking at some higher-end players — who have had slow starts to the year (and may have depressed pricing) — makes sense this week for DFS.
Despite opening the year with three missed cuts, MacIntyre has proven to be a quality talent. He’s got two wins on the DP World Tour, has finished top 12 in a major on three different occasions, and was part of the European Ryder Cup team that won in Rome this fall. He’s struggled to adapt to the American circuit thus far but his ball-striking has been fairly solid, and a lot of his woes have been putting-related (-7.3 strokes at Farmers, -3.7 strokes in Phoenix). The paspalum greens at Vidanta are certain to be much slower than the greens MacIntyre has seen of late and that’s likely to help a poor putter like MacIntyre who has had success on venues with slower-than-normal green speeds.
To date, the Scotsman’s best PGA finish remains a solo 2nd place finish at the Scottish Open, at a venue in The Renaissance Club where the fescue greens typically come around 8-9 on the stimpmeter (about 2 points lower than a regular PGA venue). We have also seen a good correlation between Vidanta and The Renaissance Club as both Kurt Kitayama (T2- Renaissance Club ‘22, T2 Vidanta ‘22) and Brandon Wu (T6 Renaissance Club ‘22, T3 Vidanta ‘23), two mid to above-average players, have had lots of success at each venue over the past two years.
I like MacIntyre as a deeper DFS play for GPPs but he makes sense as a solid ladder target as well for betting. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, he’s currently +450 (top 20), +1100 (top 10) and +2500 (top 5) all of which look like great prices considering the unproven nature of the field and the correlation of this week’s course with the Renaissance.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
