Minnesota has beaten Washington and Michigan with persistent running and stubborn defense. Darius Taylor still scraped together only 32 yards on 18 carries against Michigan. Purdue finally won a Big Ten game at Illinois, where Barry Odom’s defenders tackled more dependably after three straight losses against FBS opponents. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Purdue vs. Minnesota prediction, preview
Charles Correa and Jojo Hayden have defended conventional runs better than action toward the sidelines. Greg Harbaugh Jr. ought to send Noah Jennings around them: his 31-yard run set up Minnesota’s winning touchdown against Michigan. Jennings also carried the passing game with seven catches for 70 yards. I love that versatility: Harbaugh can send him across the middle when those linebackers crowd Taylor. Purdue has conceded an alarming 30 conversions on 58 third downs through five games. Correa has broken up five passes this season, though, so Drake Lindsey has to throw accurately around him.
Michigan hurried Lindsey into two damaging interceptions. Minnesota still allowed no sacks with Greg Johnson replacing injured center Ashton Beers and Bennett Warren starting at guard for the first time. Kevin Kane coached at Minnesota last year; Purdue’s coordinator knows Harbaugh’s tendencies and regains Georgia transfer Elo Modozie on the edge. Saturday’s 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff at Ross-Ade brings Purdue’s conference home opener and Hammer Down Cancer night, although fall break may thin the student crowd. Johnson played center in 2023 and handled the win at Washington. That road experience eases my concern about noise disrupting Lindsey’s protection calls.
Purdue can hurt Minnesota if Ryan Browne gets time to throw. His efficient 255 yards on 27 attempts at Illinois included Chauncey Magwood’s 31-yard catch to the one, setting up a crucial late touchdown. Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend supply other targets, and right tackle Jude McCoskey returns after Purdue allowed no sacks with his freshman replacement. Purdue’s tackles still have to withstand TJ Bush Jr., who has produced four sacks in Minnesota’s first five games. Michigan State transfer Aydan West can challenge those throws after breaking up four passes through five games. Browne has protected the ball with just one interception in that span.
Minnesota vs. Purdue pick, best bet
Fame Ijeboi, Taylor’s former backup, has a harder assignment against Riley Sunram and Theorin Randle inside. Aside from Mississippi State’s 252 rushing yards, no Minnesota opponent has reached 80 this season. If those linemen squeeze Ijeboi, Browne should throw early to Townsend rather than invite Bush into third-and-long. Minnesota has allowed touchdowns on nine of 12 opponent red-zone visits this season. Browne should finish some possessions in the end zone.
Kane has to decide how much help he can spare from Jennings to stop Taylor. I expect the intermediate throws to pull his linebackers away from those runs, improving Minnesota’s touchdown chances. Javon Tracy can shorten fields on punt returns, and Luke Drzewiecki has made all eight field-goal attempts this season. Stalled Gopher drives should still produce points. I’ll lay the 2.5.
Best bet: Minnesota -2.5 (-115).
Projected score: Minnesota 27, Purdue 23.
Best Bet: Minnesota -2.5 (-115) at Purdue
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