George Godsey’s first season calling Georgia Tech’s offense has stalled on missed assignments and failed finishes. At Stanford, Alberto Mendoza twice drove into opponent territory with a chance to erase a seven-point deficit; an interception and a penalty ended those possessions. Manny Diaz brings a rebuilt Duke defensive line that has helped deny opponents a second-half touchdown through four games. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Duke Blue Devils.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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GT vs. Duke prediction, preview
Duke has organized their offense around Nate Sheppard, with returning center Matt Craycraft directing a line that includes transfer tackles Nick Del Grande and Braden Miller. Sheppard has battered defenses for 7.1 yards per carry across 91 attempts this season. He can bounce outside or cut against pursuing defenders. Jonathan Brewer should call runs early against a Georgia Tech front missing ends Jordan Walker, Noah Carter and A.J. Hoffler.
The Jackets did limit Stanford to a stingy 2.3 yards per carry. Defensive tackle Tawfiq Thomas can stop Sheppard with penetration, while linebacker Kyle Efford’s probable return strengthens the tackling. With safety Savion Riley and cornerback Jaylen Mbakwe expected back, coordinator Jason Semore can crowd the run and challenge San Jose State transfer Walker Eget to convert obvious passing downs. Duke managed a meager six of 20 third-down conversions against Illinois and Stanford.
Brewer should call play action from Duke’s multiple-tight-end formations, drawing defenders toward Sheppard before Jeremiah Hasley releases into a route. Hasley caught five passes for a career-high 88 yards against Stanford, helping Duke finish long touchdown drives. Tech has sold more than 45,000 tickets for Reck Day, although rain and strong wind at Bobby Dodd Stadium could thin the crowd and hinder Eget’s longer throws over safeties closing on Sheppard.
Justice Haynes can force Duke’s linebackers to advance, too. The Michigan transfer has averaged a healthy 5.4 yards per carry through four games, although Duke has conceded only three rushing gains of at least 10 yards this season. Godsey ought to pair those runs with quick throws to Haynes and towering tight end Kevin Roche. Duke’s underneath defenders must contest Roche’s catches and tackle him immediately.
Duke vs. GT pick, best bet
Mendoza still has to recognize Duke’s disguises behind uncertain protection. Left tackle Ethan Mackenny remains out, and center Jameson Riggs is questionable. Duke ends Tyshon Reed Jr. and Kevin O’Connor disrupted Stanford with four sacks between them. Tech hampered their own offense there with six holding penalties. With only seven touchdowns across 15 red-zone visits this season, I expect the Jackets to finish one drive in the end zone and salvage two short Aidan Birr field goals.
Rahkeem Smith makes the kicking assignment dangerous: he already returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Colorado. Duke kicker Cosme Salas is questionable, and wind could shorten the touchbacks that usually deny returns. Smith could supply Mendoza another scoring chance. I still expect Duke to finish three touchdown drives and add one short field goal. I’ll lay 6.5.
Best bet: Duke -6.5 (-115).
Projected score: Duke 24, Georgia Tech 13.
Best Bet: Duke -6.5 (-115) at Georgia Tech
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