Willie Fritz brought back offensive coordinator Slade Nagle and Conner Weigman after last season’s 10–3 finish. Houston is 4–1, though they wasted scoring chances against UCF. Two failed fourth-down passes and a fumble spoiled three possessions inside the 10. Weigman finally ran for three touchdowns to erase a 17-point deficit, one after an interception to UCF’s two. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Kansas State Wildcats and the Houston Cougars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Kansas State vs. Houston prediction, preview
Nagle ought to start with Re’Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes against Kansas State’s smaller interior defenders. Portal linemen Anthony Boswell and Drew Terrill have helped rebuild Houston’s blocking; the Cougars rushed for an encouraging 177 yards on 34 carries at Texas Tech. Kansas State went into their bye at 3–1 after Cincinnati ran for a punishing 271 yards on 38 carries. New defensive coordinator Jordan Peterson could bring a safety forward or field larger linemen. Peterson has defensive end Travis Bates playing inside; Hughes ought to run right at him.
If Peterson borrows a safety for those runs, Weigman can find Amare Thomas outside or Patrick Overmyer through the middle. Houston has allowed only five sacks through five games, so Weigman should have time to find them. Peterson’s defenders recorded seven tackles for loss at Cincinnati despite their troubles against the run. Those losses would force Houston’s tackles to block Wendell Gregory on passing downs. UCF stopped Houston on half their 16 third downs.
Avery Johnson’s blockers haven’t surrendered a sack through four games. Houston’s rushers still need to restrain their pursuit: Johnson can leave the pocket when they lose their lanes. Defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong loses linebacker Jaden Yates to a leg injury, with experienced Louisiana transfer Carmycah Glass replacing him. Houston has allowed a stingy 2.6 yards per rush through five games. Rodney Fields Jr. should find that front harder to move, but first-year coach Collin Klein can call Johnson’s designed runs to challenge Glass’ pursuit.
Houston vs. Kansas State pick, best bet
Klein ought to send Derrick Salley Jr. deeper when Armstrong commits safety help to Johnson. Salley caught seven passes for 140 yards at Cincinnati, thriving while other receivers dropped passes. With Will Anciaux out for the season, Garrett Oakley also has to help Klein finish drives through the middle. Newly eligible safety Myles Rowser brings All-Big 12 experience from Arizona State; he has yet to play defense for Houston. Cincinnati contained Johnson and made him throw 50 times for a meager 292 yards.
That containment could force Kansas State into field goals. Luis Rodriguez has made all five field-goal attempts through four games, though forecast gusts of 25 mph threaten longer kicks. I expect Johnson to produce four touchdowns through runs and throws to Oakley and Salley, with Rodriguez adding a field goal. Sanford and Hughes should move Houston close enough for Weigman’s goal-line runs to matter again. Houston should reach three touchdowns; Jonathan Dimas can salvage two other drives after making all six field-goal attempts this season.
Best bet: Over 55.5 (-102).
Projected score: Kansas State 31, Houston 27.
Best Bet: Kansas State vs. Houston o55.5 total points scored (+100)
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