For several of Barcelona’s stars, the last three weeks represented a break from club duty, but not of dominating. The Blaugrana’s Spanish standouts, including Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Pau Cubarsí, all appeared several times for the World Cup winners as they extended their unbeaten run to a record 43 games with four Nations League wins.
Now, they’re back in Catalonia, preparing for the La Liga season to resume on Saturday. Barça will open the next stretch of the season as 12:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. local) with a match against Getafe.
The Blaugrana are -1200 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Azulones are +2200. A draw is available at +1200.
Below, I’ll break down this clash and provide my favorite bet.
Barcelona vs. Getafe Best Bet:
- Correct Score (Bands): 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 (+200): Getafe has given up just seven goals, and Barcelona will be without La Liga Golden Boot leader Raphinha as he recovers from a knock he picked up with the Brazilian national team, so it might not score quite as much as usual. However, while the Blaugrana’s defense can be picked apart by Europe’s elite, Getafe has the least fearsome attack in Spain.
Barcelona vs. Getafe prediction, pick
Barcelona, the back-to-back La Liga title-winner, has hardly missed a beat to start the season, going a perfect seven-for-seven (each by at least two goals) to open up a five-point lead over Atlético Madrid and Real Betis. The Blaugrana also enjoyed a dominant victory over Feyenoord to sit third in the Champions League League Phase table after the first match. Getafe, which has been a steady mid-table side over the last several seasons, is part of a five-team cluster on eight points through seven matches, though its goal difference leaves it 11th. The Azulones managed to advance to the Conference League League Phase, their first time playing in Europe since their 2019/20 run to the Europa League Round of 16.
Barça’s deep pool of talent might be unmatched by any team in the world. Although Barcelona will be without Raphinha (12 goals in seven matches), Lamine Yamal had 19 goal contributions in a nine-match stretch for club and country. Rodri has been the perfect connecting piece, and, not to be outdone, summer arrivals Anthony Gordon and Karim Adeyemi each have recorded four goal contributions of their own. The Blaugrana have managed 13 more goals, five more shots on target, and 10.04 xG worth of chances more than any other team in La Liga, and they’ve been the most aggressive and second-most accurate passing team. Against stronger opposition, defending could be an issue, but so far, Barcelona has been Spain’s second-best on that side of the ball, too, allowing the fewest shots on target (although those have come on the highest shot-in-box percentage). It’s also won both ground and aerial duels at top-three rates, and its high press has produced the second-most turnovers ending in a shot. Furthermore, the Blaugrana have been extremely disciplined, committing among the fewest fouls and playing the offsides trap to perfection. It’s hard to call any team flawless after seven weeks, but even without Raphinha in action, Hansi Flick’s men are pretty close.
If Getafe fails to challenge for Europe this season, its attack will be the primary culprit. The Azulones have only managed to score multiple goals in a game once this season, in a Conference League qualifier against Partizan Belgrade, after they scored the second-fewest goals in Spain’s top flight last season. Even after reunifying with striker Enes Ünal, its top scorer in 2021/22 and 2022/23, Getafe has managed the second-fewest goals and fewest xG in the league, uncorking the second-fewest shots on target. The Azulones have been good from set pieces, but their league-worst pass completion percentage won’t help them muster many of those against Barcelona. Instead, José Bordálas’ side has survived through its defense; like Barça, it has given up just seven goals from the 10th-fewest xG worth of chances and the ninth-fewest shots on target. Getafe has struggled somewhat on ground duels, but it has been the league’s fourth-best team from aerial duels, so it should be better-suited than most to counter Barça’s aerial dominance. David Soria has also come to the rescue in between the sticks, as he ranks third in goals prevented and fourth in save percentage.
There’s plenty to respect about the Azulones’ defense, and perhaps the Blaugrana won’t score five for the fifth time in eight weeks with Raphinha sidelined. After all, Getafe has allowed one or fewer goals in each of its last six matches in domestic competition, and it has prevented high-quality looks by limiting opponents to the fourth-fewest touches in the box. It also might get away with its foul issues, given that Barcelona has stunningly produced expected goals from set pieces at the sixth-lowest rate. However, I just can’t see the Azulones scoring, especially now that Joan García is back in between the sticks after missing one match with a knee injury. I see at least one Lamine Yamal goal in a 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 win.
