Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 5

I think it’s time to start getting optimistic about the NFL again. There’s always, of course, the preseason fantasy draft hype, the anecdotal missives from OTAs and training camp, the drilled-down beneath-the-hood analysis that reveals how talented these players are, were they just able to stay healthy, or touch the football more often. Then comes September, and those first four weeks, which felt this year especially like a slog. It’s the injuries—yes. But it’s the sloppy play, too. In this case, with all the QB1 injuries, one might beget the other. But the four weeks behind us may as well be considered the NFL’s regular season preseason, as it were, and I think it’s time things’ll really kick into gear. High-profile players will return soon for the middle-eight weeks. Depth chart situations feel as solidified as ever, this week.

So, this week, we’re going for absolute max-production plays. We want the guys whose matchups are going to win you a week. Not the guys who might just keep whatever’s left of your drafted 16 slightly buoyant as the water level churns higher. Let’s blow the roof off this thing.

Happy Fantasy Friday once more—and let’s dominated this weekend with renewed, velociraptor hope. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 5 edition. We’re-so-back edition. We’re after every edge for Sunday.

For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 5. Here are my other offerings in this edition:

• Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 5
• Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 5
• Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 5
• Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 5

All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football Week 5: Top five running backs to start

Chase Brown, CIN (at Dolphins)

Miami has made running backs considerably more dangerous as receivers. Through four games, opposing backfields have scored 6.5 more receiving PPR points per game than their usual production, the NFL’s largest increase. Joe Burrow just completed all eleven throws to Brown against Jacksonville. I like that connection against the Dolphins, particularly with Ja’Marr Chase still in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins nursing a groin injury.

Brown needed every bit of that receiving work after Jacksonville held him to ten yards on nine carries. Miami has allowed the ninth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per carry, at 1.74, through four weeks. Brown has struggled to escape tacklers, too; among 50 backs with at least 20 carries this season, only MarShawn Lloyd averages fewer yards after contact per attempt.

Burrow can involve Brown early in the passing game, where his 62% route participation last week dwarfed Samaje Perine’s 19%. Mike Gesicki will compete underneath, and those eleven catches came with Burrow throwing 54 times. Zac Taylor has also used Brown on 82% of Cincinnati’s snaps inside the 10 this season. Burrow can advance the offense through him, then turn over those last few yards to him.

Kyren Williams, LAR (vs. Bills)

Williams beat Jihaad Campbell inside Sunday, caught Matthew Stafford’s pass and reached Philadelphia’s one-yard line. Sean McVay then let him finish the drive on the ground. Blake Corum still shares the rushing work, but Williams has taken all nine Rams backfield opportunities inside the 10 through four games. Those are the touches I want.

Buffalo should make the longer runs harder to find. Through four weeks, the Bills haven’t allowed a gain of 10-plus yards against man-blocking concepts, which McVay favors. Williams can challenge them as a receiver, too: his route participation has risen from 47.2% last season to 55.7%, and Stafford targets him on 22% of his routes even with Puka Nacua playing.

McVay lets Williams adjust those routes to the linebacker. Campbell stayed shallow and Williams cut across him; against the Giants, Arvell Reese retreated and Williams split the coverage up the seam for a touchdown. Buffalo coordinator Jim Leonhard has watched his rush win quickly while his coverage concedes throws. Stafford can exploit those lapses through Williams, whose receiving work now reaches well beyond emergency checkdowns.

D’Andre Swift, CHI (at Packers)

Ben Johnson’s tune on his own backfield has changed considerably since he benched Swift for fumbling. Kyle Monangai will miss Sunday with turf toe, and Roschon Johnson should spell Swift as the RB2 now. First, Swift has to clear his own hip and knee trouble. He returned to limited practice Thursday, and his coach sounds optimistic; I’m treating him as a must-start if Chicago clears him for his usual workload.

Swift had earned substantial work before the fumble: his four-game usage averages 18.1 expected PPR points per game, with 3.3 carries per game inside the 10 ranking second among backs. Now he gets a defense surrendering 5.60 yards per carry against zone runs through four weeks, the league’s second-worst mark. Chicago has run those concepts well and prefers attacking right, where Swift can press the lane behind his blockers. Replacement left tackle Theo Benedet has to seal the backside; otherwise, pursuit can catch Swift as he works across the formation. With Tyson Bagent starting again for Caleb Williams, I expect Johnson to lean into that rushing matchup. A healthy Swift should reclaim the close-range work Monangai seized last week.

Quinshon Judkins, CLE (at Jets)

I’m willing to start Judkins through Cleveland’s ugly rushing problems because the Jets have struggled to meet runners near the line. Through four games, New York has allowed 2.52 adjusted yards before contact per carry, sixth most. Judkins, meanwhile, has found a meager 1.14 yards before contact per attempt, 44th among 47 qualifying backs. Cleveland needs its blockers to win earlier. Chicago just rushed for 232 yards against this front, repeatedly extending possessions against defenders who couldn’t get off the field.

Any improvement should benefit Judkins directly. He has taken all six Browns backfield opportunities inside the 10 this season; Jaleel McLaughlin and Raheim Sanders have yet to take one. Dylan Sampson’s stay on injured reserve has also helped Judkins draw a 13.9% target share, roughly eighth among backs. Deshaun Watson threw him seven passes against Pittsburgh, although Judkins ran only 14 routes.

Repeating those six catches would require another unusually busy day on relatively few routes. I expect the improvement to come on the ground: Judkins can reach New York’s linebackers more often, and Cleveland has reserved the close-range carries for him.

Emanuel Wilson, SEA (vs. 49ers)

Emanuel Wilson took 75% of Seattle’s running-back carries against the Chargers and both attempts inside the ten. Jadarian Price remains on injured reserve; Zach Charbonnet won’t play against San Francisco. I expect the Seahawks to put Wilson back to work early. The 49ers have conceded 2.20 adjusted yards before contact per carry through four games, ninth-most in the league. Wilson had to grind through 21 carries for 81 yards last Sunday, so some room beyond the line would be welcome.

Sam Darnold found him for a 23-yard screen touchdown, too, with Cooper Kupp throwing a block on the last defender downfield. George Holani still handles third downs, though, and Wilson ran routes on only 34.6% of Seattle’s dropbacks last week. The 49ers have surrendered the second-most receiving yards per game to backs through four games; a Seattle deficit would regularly send more of that work toward Holani, but he’s banged up for this game with rib and knee injuries both. He’ll likely be limited I’m starting Wilson as an RB2 against San Francisco.