It’s still early in the Premier League season, as barely more than one-eighth of the season has been played. However, England’s top flight is arguably the most competitive league in the world, and every point counts. Last season, Tottenham Hotspur survived by just two points, and in 2022/23, Everton only stayed up by two. For teams in and around the relegation zone, every match between them is a six-pointer.
There’s no guarantee that Fulham and Ipswich Town will be fighting for survival later in the season, of course, but given that the Cottagers and the Tractor Boys both rank among the six most likely to ultimately go down, it wouldn’t be surprising if this seemingly meaningless Matchweek 6 game, set to begin at 10 a.m. ET (3 p.m. local) in Ipswich, ultimately proved the difference in the relegation battle.
The Cottagers are +140 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and Ipswich is +185. A draw is available at +255.
Below, I’ll break down this pivotal matchup and provide my favorite bet.
Ipswich Town vs. Fulham Best Bet:
- Ipswich Town Moneyline (+185): Both of these teams have paired solid attacks with shaky defenses, but the Tractor Boys have been the better finishing team. Portman Road was a fortress last season in the Championship, and Ipswich fans will be sure to come out for what both teams know is a relegation six-pointer. Fulham’s nightmarish start will continue.
Ipswich Town vs. Fulham prediction, pick
The Tractor Boys were most recently in the Premier League in 2024/25, finishing 16 points behind Spurs and never looking particularly capable of staying in the top flight. This time, it’s been different; Ipswich opened its season by stealing all three points from Sunderland via an Emersonn late winner, and Zian Flemming picked up a 90th-minute goal in Matchweek 4 to help the Tractor Boys secure the win in another relegation six-pointer against Crystal Palace. They did falter against Manchester United, Liverpool, and Everton and were bounced from the EFL Cup by Arsenal, but losing against those quality teams is no shame. On the other hand, Fulham still hasn’t won, sitting 19th in the table in its first season under Álvaro Arbeloa, though it is still alive in the EFL Cup and picked up back-to-back draws against the Reds and the Red Devils. The Cottagers have been a consistent mid-table side since their most recent promotion in 2021/22, but that four-season streak looks to be in jeopardy early.
Ipswich is a vastly different side from the team that finished second in the Championship last season. The Tractor Boys had the third-highest net spend during the summer transfer window, bringing in Emersonn, Abdul Fatawu, Flemming, Exequiel Palacios, Julio Enciso, Daizen Maeda, and more. Those players have transformed their attack this season, as Emersonn has two goals and an assist, and Enciso has two assists. All in all, Ipswich has produced chances worth the 10th-most expected goals and uncorked the ninth-most shots on target. The Tractor Boys have also converted their shots into goals at the seventh-highest rate and completed crosses at the second-highest clip. Their defense has been shakier, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most expected goals and shots on target, but even that unit has its strengths. Ipswich has allowed shots within the box at the sixth-lowest frequency, defended brilliantly against set pieces, and registered among the most interceptions, clearances, blocks, and recoveries. It’s also produced the second-most high turnovers ending in a shot, and defender Jacob Greaves ranks fourth in ground-duel win rate. The Tractor Boys could still use an upgrade between the sticks — Kjell Scherpen has been one of the worst shot-stoppers in the league this season — but they look like a top-flight side.
Fulham has already lost potential six-pointers against the Black Cats and the Eagles, but there have also been some signs of progress. Gonzalo García, a talented 22-year-old striker who made his name in last summer’s Club World Cup before following Arbeloa over from Real Madrid, netted in his debut, and 19-year-old Joshua King has two goals. Although the Cottagers have only managed five goals total, they’ve produced the eighth-best chances and attempted just one fewer shot on target than Ipswich Town has, so some better finishing could close the gap. They’ve also completed passes at the seventh-highest rate and aren’t afraid to play conservatively, a rare tactic from a bottom-of-the-table side. However, Fulham’s defense has been even more porous than the Tractor Boys’, as it has given up chances worth the second-most expected goals and averaged fewer tackles, interceptions, recoveries, blocks, and clearances than Ipswich. The Cottagers have also forced the third-fewest high turnovers, although it has turned those chances into shots at an impressive rates. In between the sticks, Bernd Leno has given up more goals than expected based on the quality of the shots he’s faced.
On paper, these teams should be pretty evenly-matched, as the Cottagers have been slightly better in the attack but slightly more porous in the defense. However, I’m concerned about their deliberate play-style against a counter-attacking team that fights hard in the passing lanes like Ipswich, and they just don’t have the finishing to make Scherpen and the rest of the Tractor Boys’ back line pay. Ipswich picked up just one win at Portman Road in its last try at the top flight, but it was dominant there in the Championship last season, and Fulham picked up the fourth-fewest points on the road in the Premier League last season. I’m backing the Tractor Boys to stay up this season at the Cottagers’ expense, and winning the six-pointer will go a long way towards securing that.
