Charles Kelly never needed his punter against Middle Tennessee. Jacksonville State still had to rally, falling behind in the third quarter despite marching up and down the field. The Gamecocks have won two straight. Jerry Mack brings Kennesaw State home on a three-game losing streak, still replacing Amari Odom after his transfer to Syracuse. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Kennesaw State Owls and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction, preview
Caden Creel ran Middle Tennessee ragged, rushing for 119 yards on 12 carries and throwing for another 241 on 27 attempts. Deondre Johnson caught his 38-yard deep post to put Jacksonville State ahead for good. Kennesaw’s safeties have to mind Johnson while helping tackle Creel. The Owls have allowed 7.4 yards per passing attempt through four games, with only four sacks. They need to get Creel down before he escapes; bringing a safety forward to help gives Johnson room behind him.
New coordinator Taylor Housewright is getting more help from Lucas Farrington after Cam Cook’s departure for West Virginia. Farrington gained 138 rushing yards on 16 carries in the two wins. Kennesaw has allowed 4.6 yards per rush, so Housewright has little reason to make Creel carry everything. Let Farrington work, then make the Owls tackle Creel when he keeps the ball. Kennesaw has conceded touchdowns on nine of 11 red-zone visits. Trouble is, Creel threw two interceptions against Middle Tennessee, and Jacksonville State failed on fourth-and-goal from the three. All that running and throwing produced 517 yards and just 23 points.
Rickie Collins got precious little from his completions at Arkansas State. He connected on 17 of 24 throws, yet gained only 129 yards. His 47-yard completion to Javon Rogers helped Kennesaw answer Arkansas State’s first touchdown. Collins needs to find Rogers that way again, making Tre’Quon Fegans turn and run instead of letting Jacksonville State’s defenders close on short catches. Mitch Militello can keep Zion Booker working underneath, but Caleb Nix needs to close quickly on those catches. Jacksonville State has allowed a stingy 6.1 yards per passing attempt this season.
Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State pick, best bet
Boogie Woods III gave Collins some breathing room with 101 rushing yards on 19 carries. Kennesaw rushed for 197 yards and allowed no sacks behind returning tackles Nikola Milovac and JaDarious Lee. Woods finished a 14-play touchdown drive to take the lead. Jacksonville State has allowed opponents to convert 44.3% of third downs; the Owls have room to sustain those marches again. Finishing them is another matter. Arkansas State stopped two fourth-down runs, and Daniel Kinney missed a tying 32-yard kick.
Creel’s interceptions and Nix’s punt returns threaten an under with cheap points. Farrington helps Jacksonville State finish three touchdown drives here, but the Gamecocks have scored touchdowns on only eight of 18 red-zone visits. Garrison Rippa finishes another possession with a field goal. Two touchdown drives and two Kinney kicks get Kennesaw to 20. Collins won’t recover easily from a Quay Hood sack by throwing short; Hood had two against Middle Tennessee. I’ll take under 49.5.
Best bet: Under 49.5 (-110).
Projected score: Jacksonville State 24, Kennesaw State 20.
Best Bet: Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State u49.5 total points scored (-110)
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
