Last night, the San Diego Padres kept their season alive, preventing the Milwaukee Brewers from becoming the first team to punch its ticket to the League Championship Series for at least one more night. Two days after starting Game 2, the Padres’ Michael King threw a two-inning save to thwart a late Milwaukee rally.
Tonight, San Diego will have the opportunity to send it to a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday night at American Family Field, and the Brewers could clinch their spot in the NLCS for the second straight season. Game 4 is set to begin at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Both teams will rely heavily on their bullpens tonight, but Robert Gasser will serve as the opener for Milwaukee and Walker Buehler for the Padres.
Let’s break down this potential elimination game with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres Game 4 Best Bets
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (-112): This game could go either way, but San Diego was three games better at home during the regular season than the Brewers were on the road, and they’ve managed their bullpen slightly more effectively.
- Jackson Chourio 1+ RBI’s (+187): The modern record for most consecutive games with an RBI is an 11, and Chourio has driven in at least one in each of his past seven games. Only 22 pitchers allowed more earned runs than Walker Buehler.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres Game 4 prediction, preview
The Brewers were the dominant force in the National League throughout the season, winning 100 games for the first time in franchise history and claiming the league’s best record by three games. Milwaukee even ended its regular season on its strongest month yet, going 18-6 in September with baseball’s third-best OPS behind a trio of players who could conceivably receive MVP consideration in Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, and Jake Bauers. However, of that trio, only Chourio has had a strong series so far, hitting a game-tying homer in Game 1 and a walkoff single in Game 2. But the Brewers’ X-factor was really their pitching; Jacob Misiorowski is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award, and Trevor Megill, DL Hall, and Abner Uribe could all factor into the Reliever of the Year conversation. Misiorowski struggled by his standards in Game 1, and Uribe gave up an unearned run in Game 2, but Hall, Megill, Aaron Ashby, and newly-acquired Antonio Senzatela have been spectacular. JoJo Romero, in fact, is the only Milwaukee reliever to give up an earned run in this series, taking the loss in Game 3 with a solo homer to Jake Cronenworth.
San Diego was arguably baseball’s hottest team to end the season, so it’s not a surprise that it has kept this series competitive. The Padres also went 18-6 in September, and they had the best OPS in that span, with Fernando Tatís Jr. posting an OPS north of 1.000 and Ty France continuing his stunning age-31 breakout. France, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts have had strong postseasons so far, and France’s playoffs could look even better if his ninth-inning fly ball in Game 1 had left the yard instead of ricocheting off the catwalk and into Chourio’s glove, but Tatís has struggled. San Diego’s pitching staff didn’t have the strongest September, and so far these playoffs, that’s been a mixed bag; King has been tremendous, as have relievers Bradgley Rodríguez, Yuki Matsui, Adrián Morejón, and Jason Adam, but likely NL Reliever of the Year Mason Miller blew the save in Game 2 and trade deadline acquisition Robbie Ray lasted just 2.2 innings in Game 1.
Gasser should be able to provide some length tonight, which will be critical for a team whose starters have combined for just 12 total innings in the first three games of the series. He served as a starter during the regular season, pitching to a 3.87 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts), including a 2.86 mark after the All-Star break. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten a little bit lucky, as his 4.27 xERA ranks in just the 40th percentile and his pitching run value in the 47th, but he should be good enough to handle four or five solid innings before turning it over to the bullpen. The Padres might mitigate his biggest weaknesses, as although he ranks below the 30th percentile in both chase rate and whiff rate, San Diego has been slightly below-average in both of those areas. Plus, the Padres hit the fourth-most grounders, and Gasser has just a seventh-percentile ground ball rate. He’s also been exceptional at limiting hard contact, ranking in the top quintile in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, which could help cool San Diego’s last-season power surge. The location splits are mixed, as he was nearly a run worse on the road and the Padres less effective at home.
Gasser should have the edge in the starting pitching matchup over Buehler, as the Cy Young Award vote-getter in 2019 and 2021 simply hasn’t been the same since returning from the Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2023 campaign. Unlike Gasser, he didn’t end the season in elite form, with a 5.36 ERA in 19 starts before the All-Star break and a 3.62 mark in 13 starts thereafter, and he gave up at least three earned runs in each of his final two starts. His xERA was exactly the same as Gasser’s, but his strengths were less pronounced. Buehler only ranked above the league median in ground ball rate, already the Brewers’ biggest weakness. However, his bottom-septile chase and whiff rates will likely be a problem against baseball’s most disciplined team, especially since San Diego’s fielders, while solid, were not as elite as Milwaukee’s. Buehler also ranked in the league’s bottom third in both barrel rate and average exit velocity, and the Brewers have plenty of raw pop on their roster. He was better at home and Milwaukee worse on the road, but I’d still expect Craig Stammen to have a quick leash on him before turning it over to his bullpen, which could be slightly better-positioned than the Brewers’ since Miller and Morejón didn’t pitch in Game 3.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres Game 4 pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Diego Padres Moneyline (-112)
This has been the mostly tightly-fought of the Division Series, as each game has been decided by one run. While I prefer Gasser slightly to Buehler, Uribe has pitched in all three games and could be unavailable tonight. If so, his reliable brilliance could be missed.
Strong Lean: Jackson Chourio 1+ RBI’s (+187)
There’s some luck to driving in runs, but Chourio has at least one in seven of his last eight games, dating back to the regular season, and he had an OPS over .900 after the start of August. Buehler is a gettable pitcher, and it’s unclear if Matsui or Rodríguez will be available tonight after each also pitched in each of the first three games.
