In a battle between aces, it was the Dodgers who came out on top last night. With their win, the defending champs are just one victory away from advancing to the NLCS. Still, wrapping things up on Wednesday could prove difficult. A desperate Braves squad will hand the ball to red-hot starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. Can Atlanta stave off elimination in front of its home crowd?
The Dodgers are favorites (-155) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s NLDS showdown between Atlanta and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Braves ML (+128): Mahle has had some notable success over the past two seasons against LA. In comparison, Glasnow hasn’t been quite as effective in recent weeks. The Braves offer far more value to bettors tonight at these odds.
Dodgers vs. Braves prediction, preview
Tyler Glasnow gets the nod tonight for the Dodgers. When healthy (big if), few starting pitchers in baseball possess the right-hander’s level of talent. Through 74.0 innings of work this season (13 starts), he’s notched a 3.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (11.9 K/9). Interestingly enough, he tended to perform even better away from Dodger Stadium (2.84 ERA). Still, it’s a small sample size. The right-hander ranks within the 90th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, whiff rate and strikeout rate. However, he places within the 30th percentile or worse in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH) and barrel rate (8.5%). Since September 1st, the 33-year-old owns a mediocre 5.24 ERA.
Glasnow has been known to put some runners on, recording a career 3.4 BB/9 ratio. On the other hand, the Braves are averaging the league’s third-fewest walks per game (2.92). With that being said, there’s plenty of other things this lineup does right. They rank eighth in runs scored (742), seventh in homers (204) and seventh in slugging percentage (.409). As previously mentioned, Glasnow does give up some quality contact. In comparison, Atlanta’s 39.9% hard-hit rate is tenth-best in the majors. When LA’s starter last faced the Braves on August 25th, he allowed three earned runs over 5.0 innings.
On the other side, Tyler Mahle will get the nod on Wednesday night. Since coming over to Atlanta midseason, the right-hander has been nothing short of dominant. Over nine starts with his new club, the veteran has posted a 1.99 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 48 strikeouts (8.0 K/9). That doesn’t even include his last start, a dominant seven-inning, one-run effort vs. Philadelphia during the Wild Card Round. Mahle is the type of pitcher that doesn’t beat himself, displaying stellar command (1.5 BB/9) and a knack for limiting hard-hit balls (1.0 HR/9).
Atlanta’s hurler will need to be at his best tonight. Everyone knows the Dodgers are loaded; the team was fourth in runs scored (801) and second in OPS (.762) during the regular season. With that being said, this matchup has proven difficult in the past. Mahle has yet to allow a run over his previous 14.0 innings of work vs. Los Angeles. That includes a seven-inning, three-hit shutout back on April 22nd as a member of the Giants. In addition, the continued postseason struggles of Shohei Ohtani are worth monitoring. Dating back to the regular season, the slugger has tallied two hits over his previous 34 at-bats.
Best Bet: Braves ML (+128)
The Dodgers may end up winning this series, but their opponents won’t go down quietly. Given the way both pitchers have thrown recently, there isn’t much of a difference on the mound. If anything, Mahle comes into this one with more momentum on the mound. A stellar bullpen only gives Atlanta manager Walt Weiss more ammunition to work with tonight. As decent underdogs, there’s more value on the Braves this evening at home.
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
