On Wednesday’s four-game MLB slate, the early evening matchup is Game 3 of the ALDS between the Rays and the Yankees in New York. The Rays won the first two games of the series at the Trop and will look to close out the series sweep of their division rivals on Wednesday night. The Yankees will look to avoid elimination and force a Game 4 on Thursday. Let’s take a closer look and make a prediction as to how Wednesday night’s matchup will play out.
Looking at the odds, the Yankees are -167 moneyline favorites with +136 odds on the run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rays are +138 underdogs to finish out the sweep, with the total set at just 7.0 runs.
Rays at Yankees prediction, preview
In Game 1 of the series, the Rays got an outstanding performance from Drew Rasmussen and pulled out a narrow 1-0 victory behind a home run from Jonathan Aranda. In Game 2, they faced Cam Schlittler and won 5-2 thanks to some “small ball” tactics and some shaky defense from the Yankees.
The only offense the Yankees got in the two games in Tampa was from Ben Rice, who hit a pair of home runs in Game 2, continuing to be red-hot in the postseason. He’ll need some help, though, from the rest of the lineup if the Yankees don’t want their season to come to an end on Wednesday.
They’ll be taking on Nick Martinez, who has been one of the biggest surprises of the year. Martinez started his career with the Rangers, spent a couple of years in Japan, and then returned to the Padres in 2022. After two years in San Diego and two in Cincinnati, the Rays brought him in on a one-year deal. As has become their pattern, the Rays figured something out with Martinez and got him working much more effectively. After a 4.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP last season with the Reds, Martinez posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while going 15-6 in 31 starts for Tampa Bay.
He was even better on the road, with a 2.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his 94 2/3 innings away from the Trop this season. He faced the Yankees three times, going 0-1 with a 2.16 ERA across 16 2/3 innings. While he doesn’t have name recognition, he does still have more upside than most casual fans realize after his strong breakout season with the Rays.
He’ll be opposed by Yankees lefty Max Fried, who pitched well against the Red Sox in the Wild Card series, allowing just one run in six innings to get the win in the final game of the Wild Card series. Fried went 5-5 on the season with a 2.80 ERA and 2.65 FIP, although his numbers were better on the road than pitching at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he had a 3.42 ERA.
Fried faced the Rays twice this season, going 0-1 with a 4.30 ERA. He allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings against them in his last regular-season start, in a game the Rays won, 6-1. The Rays clinched the A.L. East crown with that win over the Yankees in the Bronx, and they’ll look to celebrate at Yankee Stadium again on Wednesday if they can beat Fried once again.
The Rays went 7-6 against the Yankees in the regular season, although two of those losses came in the two games right after they clinched the division, so they may not have been quite as locked in. They looked ready to roll in the playoffs, though, which was in sharp contrast to the Yankees, who struggled badly both at the plate and in the field in the first two games of this series.
Can coming home to the Bronx get the bats back on track? In their two games in Tampa Bay, the Yankees went 3-for-52 (.058) with two walks, no runs, no RBIs and 17 strikeouts if you don’t count Ben Rice.
The Rays have had offensive issues of their own, going just 1-18 (.056) with runners in scoring position in this series. They have also struggled against lefties this year, posting just the 25th-best OPS vs. LHP in the MLB.
Rays at Yankees pick, best bet
With both teams struggling at the plate and a pair of solid starting pitchers, the game is likely to be another low-scoring, pitching-forward playoff contest. The teams combined for seven runs or fewer in each game in this series and in six of their last 10 regular-season meetings. The Yankees are sure to have a quick hook with Fried if he struggles and could go to their high-leverage pitchers earlier than usual to avoid elimination. Since Nick Martinez has also been very effective and has the strong Rays bullpen behind him, I think neither team is likely to break out offensively with a huge game, leaving this game as a strong play for the under at plus-money.
Best bet: Under 7.0 runs (+101)
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