Blake Anderson is rebuilding Southern Miss after Charles Huff’s departure gutted last year’s bowl-team roster. The Golden Eagles have lost all three games against FBS opponents. Yet Landry Lyddy nearly stole one at Tulane. Troy return home from consecutive road defeats after holding Missouri to a stingy 230 total yards, then squandering their own yardage at Utah State. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Troy Trojans and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Troy vs. Southern Miss prediction, preview
Lyddy threw with some bite in his first start this season. Replacing the injured Ethan Hampton, he attacked Tulane for three touchdowns without an interception, averaging a lively 8.4 yards per attempt on 18-of-29 passing. Those touchdown drives covered 61, 75 and 69 yards; Southern Miss earned their way downfield. Anderson praised his timing; Lyddy has spent a year learning this offense, and now he’ll have to decipher Troy’s changing fronts.
Troy will work to cloud those reads. They threaten blitzes, shuffle defenders and drop back into coverage; Donnie Smith has reached the quarterback for a sack in every game this season. Tulane sacked Lyddy four times and stranded Southern Miss on third down, where they converted a dreadful three of 14 attempts. Kyle Cefalo needs to get AJ Little and Mario Sanders involved before those long-yardage downs pile up. Troy have allowed opponents to complete 61% of their passes through four games, so I expect some success throwing early. Steven Robinson and Louisville transfer Jamarice Wilder also ran for an encouraging 133 yards on 26 combined carries at Tulane, although Troy’s stronger front should squeeze that support.
Troy can punish Southern Miss on the ground. Gavin Griffin and Purdue transfer Jaheim Merriweather can run at a defense surrendering an alarming 235.2 rushing yards per game, now without defensive lineman Jeffery Rush for the season. Adam Austin’s veer-and-shoot offense stretches defenders across the field. If the safeties creep forward to stop those backs, TK Keyes can burn them deep. Troy could bury Southern Miss that way, especially if Smith hurries Lyddy into turnovers.
Southern Miss vs. Troy pick, best bet
I expect Troy to recover offensively, enough to reach four touchdowns. But Goose Crowder threw three interceptions while averaging a paltry 4.6 yards per attempt at Utah State, and Ethan Head missed field goals from 28 and 48 yards. Troy have finished only five of nine red-zone visits with touchdowns this season. Griffin and Merriweather should carry Troy into scoring position more often, but Crowder still has to turn those visits into touchdowns.
I’m taking the 10.5 points because I expect Lyddy to complete enough early throws to keep Southern Miss moving. Smith should kill some drives. I still expect Lyddy to throw on time often enough to steer Southern Miss to three touchdowns.
Best bet: Southern Miss +10.5
Projected score: Troy 28, Southern Miss 21.
Best Bet: Southern Miss +10.5 (-110) at Troy
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