Patrick Surtain in the secondary, Puka Nacua on the sideline, and Davante Adams still worked Denver for seven catches and 137 yards. I want Matthew Stafford going back to him Sunday, even as Nacua returns from his hip injury. Adams has now topped 136 receiving yards in consecutive games, an awful lot of offense to produce while everybody knows which receiver Stafford is missing. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Eagles vs. Rams prediction, preview
Kyren Williams supplied another 70 receiving yards against Denver, nearly half his 158 yards from scrimmage. I’m considerably less enthusiastic about those throws against Philadelphia. The Eagles have held backs to a league-low 10.7 receiving YPG and runners to 1.58 adjusted YBC/ATT, tenth-lowest. They’ll have to defend those throws Sunday without linebacker Zack Baun, an absence that keeps me interested in Williams underneath.
Philadelphia could use their own receivers back. DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown, and Dallas Goedert are out, with Smith alone drawing 29.5% of Jalen Hurts’s targets before his absence. Dontayvion Wicks and Makai Lemon inherit more work just as their linemen struggle to exchange assignments against twists. Hurts already waits an average of 2.90 seconds to throw, sixth-longest, and now he has to find completions with his most frequently targeted receiver missing.
Los Angeles use Cover 1 and Cover 4 on 46.7% of plays, and Hurts has labored against those calls for 6.39 YPA and a 61.0 rating over 37 dropbacks. Saquon Barkley deserves more carries under these circumstances. Philadelphia have gained a healthy 4.87 YPC on zone runs, ninth-best, and Barkley just gouged Chicago for 82 yards on only 15 attempts. With Aaron Donald out and Myles Garrett on IR, I expect him to keep Philadelphia competitive on the ground.
Rams vs. Eagles pick, best bet
Stafford can undo plenty of good work himself. An INT in every game, including two against Denver, makes laying more than a field goal uncomfortable. I’m willing to take that risk with Adams thriving and Nacua returning, especially when Hurts has to compensate for losing his busiest receiver. I have Barkley keeping Philadelphia close early, then Stafford forcing Hurts to answer through the air in the second half. Rams -3.5, with a 26–17 win.
Best bet: Rams -3.5 (-112)
Projected score: Rams 26, Eagles 17
