Buffalo can go straight after Christian Barmore’s replacement with James Cook, then move outside to DJ Moore against a secondary missing Christian Gonzalez. The Patriots have lost two defenders they badly needed for this matchup. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bills vs. Patriots prediction, preview
Cook has broken explosive runs on a league-leading 22.6% of his carries, with another NFL-best figure, 4.28 YBC/ATT, describing how regularly Buffalo’s blocking gets him moving before contact. Cook cut through the Chargers for 154 yards on 24 carries, his second consecutive game above 135 rushing yards. I expect Buffalo to keep feeding him against Barmore’s replacement.
Moore’s involvement is just as compelling: 31% of Buffalo’s targets and a striking 48% of their air yards across his two full games. Josh Allen keeps looking his way, including on deeper throws. With Gonzalez unavailable, I like Moore’s chances to sustain that production. Allen has cleared his designation, as have Moore and Keon Coleman; Buffalo have their principal receiving options available.
The Patriots’ protection has to hold up long enough for Drake Maye to answer. Morgan Moses remains questionable, and Maye already ranks 31st in EPA/DB among qualifying QBs. His trouble against Cover 3 and Cover 4 is particularly relevant here: a meager 5.82 YPA and 50.9 passer rating over 42 dropbacks against structures Buffalo use on roughly 58% of plays. New England’s backs managed only 45 rushing yards on 15 carries last week. Repeated passing downs would expose Maye to more of those same coverage decisions.
Patriots vs. Bills pick, best bet
Buffalo’s secondary still worries me. They have surrendered the fifth-most passing yards per game, 275.7, and Christian Benford’s toe injury could cost them their best outside corner. I expect New England to produce some scoring drives. Buffalo’s offense can create greater separation through Cook and Moore, provided Josh Allen protects the ball better. Buffalo gave it away five times last week, including three Allen turnovers.
I’m taking Buffalo at seven. Cook can sustain drives, Moore can extend them downfield, and Allen has taken four of Buffalo’s five designed carries inside the one. That finishing role, backed by two rushing TDs in every game, strengthens my confidence in a Buffalo offense capable of reaching the low 30s.
Best bet: Bills -7 (-105)
Projected score: Bills 31, Patriots 20
