There’s a Texas-sized showdown on deck in Week 4 of the NFL season. The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans are both underperforming, with the latter still seeking their first win of the year. These are both playoff-caliber teams, though, and it feels like it’s only a matter of time before things normalize. A battle between a top-notch offense and an elite defense should be must-see TV, too.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Houston. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Cowboys vs. Texans in NFL Week 4.
Cowboys vs. Texans prediction, preview
At 1-2, the Cowboys have to feel pretty displeased about how the season has begun. They lost to the Giants on Sunday Night Football in the opener, blew out the Commanders in Week 2, but then collapsed down the stretch to lose in dramatic fashion against the Ravens in Rio last week. The results have been a very mixed bag, to say the least.
The positives to take away all center around the offense. Dallas averages 27.3 PPG, good for seventh in the NFL, also sitting fourth in overall EPA/play. The coaching staff heavily favors the pass with an 8.9% PROE that paces the sport, but that’s a reasonable game plan since the team ranks fourth in EPA/dropback. This passing attack has looked more methodical than explosive this year, but Dak Prescott has 730 yards with seven touchdowns to just one pick, so he’s playing some of his best football at the moment. CeeDee Lamb looks like an alpha wideout once again with 20 receptions for 309 yards and three touchdowns, though George Pickens has slid into a more complimentary role with 16 grabs for 150 yards and no score yet. Javonte Williams also has 226 scrimmage yards with three touchdowns, and overall, the offensive line has played fairly well. That’s where the positives end, though. The Cowboys’ defense predictably appears to be one of the league’s worst yet again, allowing 27.3 PPG (25th) and tumbling to dead last in EPA/play allowed. They’re second-to-last in EPA/dropback and will now be without cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstring) and safeties Jalen Thompson (hamstring) and P.J. Locke (foot), both of whom are on IR. While the front office just traded for Joey Porter Jr., a standout corner from the Steelers, he may not yet be ready to fully integrate into this secondary.
The Texans’ outlook is a little more dire at 0-3. A winless record at this point didn’t feel like a real possibility prior to the season, but they dropped a thriller to the Bills in the opener, then lost to the Bengals and Colts after that. Operating without star wideout Nico Collins makes it easier to excuse the latter two losses, but with him back in the lineup this week, it’s do-or-die time.
The story with Houston’s offense has largely been the same old, same old this season. The offensive line has struggled to keep C.J. Stroud upright and create running lanes for the halfbacks, so while things will improve somewhat with Collins back in the fold – he caught seven passes for 75 yards and a score in his season debut – he’s not a fix-all solution. Stroud has 794 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, but the team ranks 21st in EPA/dropback. David Montgomery popped in Week 1 with a hat-trick of touchdowns, but hasn’t excelled over the last two weeks as Woody Marks has eaten slightly into his workload, with the run game sitting 25th in EPA/rush. Overall, that comes out to the 24th-ranked EPA/play and just 18.0 PPG, 26th among all teams. The defense will have to hold up their end of the bargain this week, but even that’s a trickier proposition than in the past. So far, the Texans have conceded 25.0 PPG (19th) with an EPA/play that falls 16th. They did play two elite offenses to open the campaign, but this is still a unit that ranked first in EPA/play and success rate allowed last season. Seeing them falter – particularly against the pass – is quite surprising, all things considered. However, the pass rush remains impressive with 11 sacks and the team has forced three fumbles to complement its lone interception.
Cowboys vs. Texans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Texans as a -3 favorite at home with -162 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cowboys are a +136 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 48.5 combined points.
This’ll be a very interesting chess match between teams that are growing desperate. Dallas’ passing attack has strung together long drives but is 29th in explosive rate so far, a pretty big downturn from last season. We saw last year that Houston’s defense was a bit susceptible to those big plays, especially the defense. Can the Cowboys get some of that upside back this week? Quite possibly, since the Texans have looked far less intimidating defending the pass this season. However, the home team’s elite pass rush of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter could wreak havoc on Dallas’ timing since the Texans are fourth in pressure rate so far. Their offense may also get back in the swing of things with Collins back on the field to face a defensive unit that should have Cowboys coordinator Christian Parker questioning his job security already.
Offense vs. defense often favors the latter. In all honesty, it’s tough to project how this matchup will play out, but I think the Cowboys’ alt spread of +3.5 leaves a little bit of wiggle room since it’s unlikely they’re entirely stymied in this contest.
