National League juggernauts are set to clash on Saturday in Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers have been waiting patiently, itching to defend their back-to-back titles. As for the Braves, it was a hard-fought three-game series against the Phillies in the Wild Card Round. Can Atlanta pull off an upset this afternoon against Tarik Skubal and the World Series favorites?
The Dodgers are favorites (-212) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s NLDS showdown between Atlanta and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Dodgers pick, best bet today
- Braves vs. Dodgers under 4.5 runs – First 5 Innings (-125): Skubal is a machine, and it’s difficult to bet against him in any capacity. That’s especially true for a Braves lineup that struggles against lefties. With that being said, Atlanta’s elite bullpen could keep things close this afternoon. Keep in mind, the Dodgers tend to score fewer runs at home.
Braves vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
After using Chris Sale in relief on Thursday, the Braves are without their ace today. Granted, the veteran probably doesn’t take the mound this afternoon with just three days of rest. Regardless, manager Walt Weiss will need to get creative in Game 1. Fortunately, he has options. Atlanta’s bullpen has combined for a 3.44 ERA this season, fourth-best in the big leagues. Without taking the field on Friday, this group should be well-rested coming into Dodger Stadium. Southpaws Brent Suter, Dylan Lee, and Dylan Dodd could all make an appearance vs. Los Angeles’ lefty-dominant lineup.
Granted, navigating this group of hitters won’t be easy. Even the most casual of baseball fans knows the big names: Betts, Freeman, Ohtani…it’s an embarrassment of riches at the plate. As a unit, the Dodgers ranked fourth in runs scored (801), seventh in home runs (204) and second in OPS (.762). Still, this group averages more runs per game on the road (5.26) than at home (4.62). Los Angeles scored three runs or fewer in five of six meetings with the Braves this season. As previously mentioned, Atlanta can put a lefty on the mound at almost any point during Saturday’s contest.
The biggest challenge for the Braves this afternoon will be putting up runs of their own. That’s proven difficult in recent weeks; the team has scored the third-fewest runs in baseball since August 1st (205). The biggest issue for this group is a lack of plate discipline. Atlanta is only averaging 2.89 walks per game, third-fewest in baseball. In the postseason, working the count and taking advantage of spotty command is essential. Unsurprisingly, the free-swinging Braves have posted the league’s third-lowest on base percentage (.309).
Putting up runs has proven difficult for Atlanta against most elite pitchers. It won’t get any easier on Saturday against Skubal. Los Angeles’ newest acquisition has been his usual dominant self since joining the club in July. During his previous ten starts, the southpaw has recorded a 2.61 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 70 strikeouts (10.2 K/9). Even more impressive, he sits within the 99th percentile in walk rate (4.4%). That level of command, combined with swing and miss stuff, is difficult to overcome. The Braves come into today’s matchup with a .662 OPS on the road against left-handed pitching. That’s the seventh-lowest mark in baseball this season.
Best Bet: Braves vs. Dodgers under 4.5 runs – First 5 Innings (-125)
Skubal’s performance alone may be enough for this bet to hit. However, the Braves have more than enough talent out of the ‘pen to keep Los Angeles in check. The Dodgers, for all their greatness, haven’t been the greatest offense at home. On the other side, Atlanta’s all-or-nothing lineup could come up empty this afternoon against one of the sport’s most talented arms.
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