Josh Downs has seen his targets climb from four to nine to eleven across three weeks, and he draws a Washington defense that has been shredded by wide receivers all season. This sets the stage for a potential breakout. Find out whether you should start or sit Josh Downs in Week 4.
Josh Downs Start or Sit Advice for Week 4
The volume is going in one direction. Downs opened with four targets against Baltimore, then drew nine against Kansas City and eleven against Houston. Read his usage off the last two games rather than the season figure and he is at roughly 30% of Indianapolis targets, above the 25.5% his three-game line suggests. He also carries 36.8% of the team’s air yards, so he is not confined to the short stuff you might expect from a slot receiver.
Washington is the matchup that makes this easy. No defense has surrendered more to wide receivers than the Commanders, who sit at 46.4 PPR points per game allowed on 191.0 yards with a 74.2% catch rate and six touchdowns conceded. A caveat is attached: they have faced Philadelphia, Dallas and Seattle, offenses throwing 26% above league average, so the raw figure is inflated. Even discounted, giving up nearly 15 catches and 152 air yards per game points to coverage that cannot hold up.
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury, which removes the field-stretcher from this room and leaves more of the downfield work for Downs and Keenan Allen.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Josh Downs in Week 4
Indianapolis cannot generate much passing volume. The Colts sit at 190.0 passing yards per game on a team rating of 80.8 with only 106.0 air yards per game, and Daniel Jones has thrown an interception in every game while posting ratings of 72.8, 86.8 and 82.5. Downs has caught 58.3% of his targets, which is low for a receiver working this close to the line of scrimmage and reflects the accuracy he is dealing with.
The room is also crowded. Keenan Allen has 20 targets and broke out for nine targets, six catches, 63 yards and a touchdown against Houston, and Tyler Warren has absorbed 22 targets with 10 of them coming in that same game. Downs has yet to score despite four red zone targets, and he gets occasional looks near the end zone rather than first crack at it. His production has come from volume and the 69 YAC he has piled up, not from finding paint.
One more note on Allen. He showed up as a new addition to the injury report with a groin issue as a limited participant Thursday. If he is downgraded, Downs becomes the clear focal point of this passing attack.
Fantasy Outlook for Josh Downs in Week 4
Start Downs in Week 4 with confidence. He posted 14.2 and 12.7 PPR points the last two weeks without reaching the end zone, so the floor is already there before any touchdown equity enters the picture, and he draws the softest coverage unit in football.
This is a volume play against a leaky secondary rather than a bet on a breakout offense. Indianapolis will not throw 40 times, so Downs needs his share to stay near 30% to deliver. It has for two straight games, Pierce is unavailable, and Washington has no answer for receivers working the middle of the field. Put him in your lineup as a second receiver and feel good about it.
Find more Week 4 fantasy football start/sit coverage here!