Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for this week’s college football game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Baylor Bears.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona State vs. Baylor player props
Cutter Boley u219.5 total passing yards (-115)
Cutter Boley’s overall passing average requires a substantial opponent adjustment. He averages 245.3 yards, but against FBS opponents that drops to 174.5, with 32 completions in 57 attempts. The Morgan State blowout materially enlarged the headline figure. Baylor should make the passing assignment considerably closer to the more difficult portion of that sample.
The Bears recorded five sacks and 13 tackles for loss against Colorado, an aggressive defensive performance that repeatedly pushed the offense backward. Their four straight games allowing fewer than 20 points also support a lower expectation, though those scoring results do not establish that every opponent will struggle to gain yards.
Reed Harris is the complication I take most seriously. His 19 catches have produced 374 yards and five touchdowns, so a few explosive throws could undo an otherwise sound under. Arizona State also had a bye after London. Even allowing for that preparation and some Harris production, I favor Boley below 219.5 against a defense capable of repeatedly disrupting passing downs.
Gavin Freeman 81+ total receiving yards (-110)
Gavin Freeman has caught 35 passes through four games, averaging a substantial 8.75 receptions despite Baylor’s changes at quarterback. He finished with six catches for 59 yards against Colorado as DJ Lagway returned from an ankle injury. Lagway completed only 19 of 39 throws, leaving considerable room for the passing offense to improve if his second week back brings better timing.
Freeman’s 364 receiving yards put his season average at 91, modestly above this line. He needs volume to get there: at his current average of roughly 10.4 yards per catch, nine receptions would produce about 94 yards. That is close to his established workload, though last week’s six catches caution against simply assuming it.
Arizona State’s low passing-yard allowance provides further resistance, and their bye allowed extra preparation for Baylor’s receivers. I still favor Freeman over 83.5 at -104. Lagway kept finding him through a difficult return against Colorado, and another few completions would put Freeman close to his usual receiving volume. I expect Baylor to keep working through him as Lagway settles back in.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
