Luke Weaver’s four interceptions against Fresno State deserve a long look before anyone backs San Jose State again. The Spartans accumulated 335 yards but scored only ten points, produced a meager 13 first downs, and converted six of 17 third downs. They repeatedly failed to turn movement into sustainable offense. The bye has provided time to address those decisions, though an extra week of practice cannot establish that Weaver will make better ones in Honolulu. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the San Jose State Spartans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Hawaii vs. SJSU prediction, preview
Honolulu adds another concern for San Jose State. Hawaii have won nine of their last 11 home games dating to 2024, although that history spans changing rosters and should carry less weight than the current matchup. San Jose State’s five-game series winning streak has the same limitation. Weaver’s return to Hawaii and Ken Niumatalolo’s ties to the islands make this an interesting trip, but neither supplies a reliable adjustment to the score. The travel and the passing decisions matter much more.
Jabari Bates offers a more encouraging place to begin. He carried 19 times for 94 yards against Fresno State, maintaining useful rushing production even while the passing game unraveled. Earlier, he ran for 163 yards on 27 carries against Cal Poly. The opponent limits what that larger total proves about his efficiency, but the workload is relevant. San Jose State have shown they are willing to keep handing Bates the ball when he can advance the offense.
Hawaii’s run defense should invite more of that work. The Rainbow Warriors rank near the bottom of the FBS in rushing EPA allowed, and San Jose State have a favorable overall yards-per-play comparison entering the game. I’d expect the Spartans to test the interior and keep Weaver in manageable situations. Bates can contribute first downs himself; San Jose State’s case as an underdog becomes considerably stronger when it includes a functioning offense beyond a hoped-for reduction in interceptions.
SJSU vs. Hawaii pick, best bet
Micah Alejado will challenge the other side of that argument. Hawaii have a high-volume passing offense, and Tama Uiliata’s 24 catches already establish him as a frequent option. The Rainbow Warriors can string together completions and make San Jose State defend an extended series. I have Hawaii reaching 24 points, allowing for productive passing stretches and some improvement in finishing. San Jose State will need to tackle underneath receivers before modest completions become easy conversions.
Bates is the reason I can return to San Jose State after that Fresno State loss. Hawaii’s run defense offers him a favorable assignment, and the Spartans can reach a competitive score through ordinary rushing possessions if Weaver protects the ball. I have San Jose State winning 27-24 and will take the full field goal. Alejado’s passing should keep Hawaii close throughout, so I’ll happily retain those points while asking Weaver for a much less eventful evening in his former home.
Best bet: San Jose State +3 (-112)
Projected score: San Jose State 27, Hawaii 24
Best Bet: SJSU +3 (-110) at Hawaii
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