In the evening portion of Saturday’s Week 5 college football slate, the Army Black Knights will face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. This is only the fourth meeting between the programs, and Army has won all three previous matchups.
Looking at the odds, Army enters as a narrow 1.5-point favorite with -122 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Louisiana Tech is +102 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 47.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 5 CFB matchup.
Army vs. Louisiana Tech Preview
Army Black Knights
The Army Black Knights are off to a 2-1 start and are 2-1 against the spread. Jeff Monken’s group opened the season with a convincing 59-3 win over Bryant, tallying 648 total yards of offense and easily covering the 36.5-point spread. Army picked up their lone loss the following week, falling 28-24 to South Florida as 3.5-point favorites. They held a 10-point lead with five minutes left, but South Florida produced some offensive magic in a way the Black Knights are surely still kicking themselves. Most recently, they got back in the win column with a gutsy 21-17 win over Temple, in which their fourth-quarter touchdown and defensive production were enough to cover the three-point spread.
As expected for the Black Knights, the rushing attack is the clear foundation of their offense. As a team, Army is averaging 355.7 rushing yards per game while throwing for just 81 yards per game. Cale Hellums primarily lines up under center and has completed 16 of his 25 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns this season, while adding 47 rush attempts for 246 yards and five scores on the ground. Godspower Nwawuihe and Zach Mundell have each recorded two rushing touchdowns and combined for 305 rushing yards. Samari Howard leads the team with 62 receiving yards and has added 135 yards on the ground.
Through their opening three games, Army is averaging 34.7 points per game, which ranks 50th out of the 138 qualifying D1 teams. The Black Knights are conceding 16 points per contest, which ranks 29th in the country.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs enter this matchup with a 1-2 overall record, but have covered the spread in all three games so far. They kicked off the year with an impressive 80-6 win over Northwestern State, covering the 45-point spread. The Bulldogs then faced a stretch of their schedule, losing 45-14 against LSU and 36-19 to Baylor in back-to-back weeks. Louisiana Tech covered the 34.5-point spread against LSU and the 20.5-point margin in the previous game.
Blake Baker kicked off the season as the starting quarterback, completing 21 of 35 pass attempts for 360 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. However, Baker suffered a fracture in his throwing hand during the Week 2 loss at LSU, which kept him out last week and leaves his status uncertain moving forward. He is officially questionable for the matchup, but it is difficult to imagine Baker playing through the issue given the nature of the injury. In his absence, Trey Kukuk has completed 32 of his 51 passes for 283 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while adding a team-high 127 rushing yards.
Louisiana Tech has a widespread rushing attack with eight players on the team having notched at least four carries. Six of them have reached the end zone, although the 80 points the Bulldogs put on the board in Week 1 helped increase this number. Jalen Mickens is the unquestioned top wide receiver threat, and he has pulled in 13 receptions for 297 yards and two touchdowns this season. Tight End Eli Finley is the only other player to record over 100 yards this year, with 132 yards and two touchdowns.
As a team, Louisiana Tech is averaging 37.7 points per contest, which ranks 33rd out of the 138 qualifying D1 teams. They are currently conceding 29.0 points per game, which ranks 112th in the country.
Army vs. Louisiana Tech Pick, Best Bet
My lean is toward Army winning on the road, and the narrow spread should be a comfortable margin to cover. The Black Knights have shown real grittiness to start the year, and it is impressive how many unique looks they generate out of their run-oriented base system. However, I am still not sure what to make of this Louisiana Tech team. They blew out a far inferior opponent in their opening game and were defeated comfortably by schools they were overmatched by in their first two weeks. This is essentially their first matchup of the season against a team in the same weight class, and there are fair reasons to be encouraged about the team overall.
Instead, I am backing the game total to go over 47.5 points in this matchup. Points being scored at a high rate is not the first thing that comes to mind when you think of an Army football game. But they have produced 21+ points in all three games thus far and will face a Louisiana Tech team that ranks 112th in the country in opponent scoring. Most concerning, the Bulldogs are conceding 132.7 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns per game thus far. They were gashed for 147+ rushing yards in back-to-back games, and even gave up 86 rushing yards in the opening week despite the 74-point blowout. Expect Army to have some vulnerabilities circled, and for this to remain their natural point of emphasis offensively.
On the other side of the matchup, don’t expect Louisiana Tech just to go down quietly. They exploded for 80 points in the opener and managed five combined touchdowns against the fierce defenses of LSU and Baylor. Army has allowed over 330 yards per game and has conceded 45 points over the past two games. Trey Kukuk has looked more than competent stepping in at quarterback, and his dual-threat ability will stretch this Army defense.
So far this season, all three Louisiana Tech games have gone over the game total, while last week’s matchup with Temple is the first time they have failed to clear this line. The game total also finished at exactly 48 on the 48.5 line. Count on both sides to have some offensive success, with each team having a path to 20+ points in this matchup. Expect the 47.5 game total to be too low, and buckle up for some offense in this Saturday night showdown.
